1. Shocking fundamentals: Three major events ignite the market
1. Coinbase officially announces that on May 7th at 3:05 AM Pacific Time (18:05 Beijing Time), the Ethereum Pectra upgrade is about to begin, which may reshape the ecological landscape.
2. Ripple donates $25 million to the U.S. nonprofit organization DonorsChoose to promote financial literacy, is there a market layout signal hidden behind this charity?
3. Market prediction: There is a 97.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at 2 AM on May 8th, with macro trends soon determining the direction of the cryptocurrency market.
2. Technical analysis decoded: Intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears
BTC: Weekly chart shows long shadows hiding danger
Last week, BTC's weekly chart peaked at 98 before a significant drop, closing with a long upper shadow and small bullish candle. This week, 91600 becomes the critical life-and-death line; a break below will completely trigger bears. On the daily chart, two solid bearish candles appear after the peak, losing support from moving averages, while the 4-hour chart shows a downward trend. 938 is a short-term iron bottom, with intraday focus on 946 - 953 resistance and 936 - 928 support.
ETH: Upgrade imminent, is the pullback a trap?
Ethereum mainnet upgrade countdown begins, weekly volume contracts with narrow fluctuations, 1750 is the key defense level, below 1600 may present a good buying opportunity. Daily chart shows weak pullback but declining volume, clear intention to wash out positions. 4-hour chart shows a peak and drop, intraday focus on 1810 - 1830 resistance, with support lines at 1780 and 1750.
Altcoins: A tale of two extremes, waiting for a turning point
Structural differentiation in the crypto market intensifies, mainstream coins resist declines while altcoins plummet. AI and meme sectors are consolidating for a rebound, with a potential second buying opportunity in mid to late May; currently, the focus is on observation, waiting for mainstream adjustments to conclude.
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is advised when entering. This is a personal view, not a suggestion, for sharing purposes only.
