Daily Sentiment: 🟡Moderate optimism in sensitive territory

🌏 Asia up with diplomatic climate, despite reduced liquidity

Most Asian markets are up this Tuesday (6), driven by renewed optimism about the possibility of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Investors also reacted to the latest service data from China and began to position themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, which starts today.

Several major markets in the region — including Japan and South Korea — were closed due to local holidays, which reduced total trading volume, but did not prevent the advancement of the markets that remained open.

Meanwhile, US index futures traded slightly lower during the Asian session, reflecting investors' cautious stance ahead of the upcoming Fed decision.

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🇨🇳 China leads with hope for dialogue and recovery post-holiday

Chinese indices reacted strongly:

🇭🇰 Hang Seng — 22,611.25 points (+0.47%)

🟢 Moderate rise, reflecting business optimism with the US. The index was supported by technology and export-oriented stocks, reacting positively to conciliatory statements from Chinese and American authorities.

• 🇦🇺 S&P/ASX 200 — 8,156.60 points (-0.01%)

🟠 Absolute stability in Sydney. The Australian market hardly moved, with investors fully focused on the Fed meeting and avoiding major repositioning.

• 🇰🇷 KOSPI 200 — 338.79 points (+0.01%) (reference from 02/05)

🔴 Market closed this Tuesday. The slight gain recorded in the last session still reflects resilience in the semiconductor sector, but attention now turns to the post-holiday return and possible reactions to the international agenda.

• 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite — 3,306.70 points (+0.84%)

🟢 Significant rise based on post-holiday recovery and diplomatic climate. The return of local investors, combined with China's gesture towards trade negotiations, boosted consumer and industrial stocks.

• 🇨🇳 SZSE Component — 10,041.51 points (+1.43%)

🟢 Largest rise among Chinese indices. The Shenzhen Component reacted enthusiastically to the resumption of negotiations and showed strong performance among growth and technology stocks.

• 🇨🇳 China A50 — 13,109.42 points (+0.34%)

🟢 Moderate rise in Chinese blue chips. The index that aggregates the 50 largest companies in mainland China rose with support from state-owned enterprises and banks, although at a more measured pace than Shenzhen.

• 🇵🇭 PSEi Composite — 6,389.49 points (+0.47%)

🟢 Consistent rise in Manila, supported by banks and domestic consumption. Despite regional caution, the Philippine market showed selective appetite, following the positive tone in Asia.

The movement was driven by statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who told CNBC he expects progress in trade negotiations with China in the coming weeks.

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On Sunday, Donald Trump emphasized that the US is in talks with several countries, including Beijing, seeking fairer agreements. China, in turn, responded that it is open to dialogue, as long as it is based on sincerity and involves the removal of unilateral tariffs.

The local market also responded to the return of Chinese investors after the holiday, who sought to make up for lost time, taking advantage of the more positive tone of the international scenario.

However, not everything was enthusiasm: data released on Friday showed that China's service sector grew less than expected in April, which could limit momentum in the coming days.

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🇯🇵 Japan out of trading, but still on the global radar

The Japanese market remained closed this Tuesday due to the Golden Week holiday, one of the most important in the country's calendar. As a result, the Nikkei 225 index did not operate, and total volumes in Asia were reduced.

Despite the pause, Japan remains a central piece for global investors, especially after recent verbal interventions from the government to curb the yen's depreciation. The expectation is that the market will react strongly upon reopening, especially in the export and banking sectors.

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🇰🇷 South Korea also closed for holiday

Like Japan, South Korea also had its market closed this Tuesday due to a national holiday. The Kospi, South Korea's main index, is set to reopen on Wednesday, and investors are closely monitoring developments in technology and semiconductors amid the international scenario.

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🇦🇺 Australia and 🇸🇬 Singapore operate with neutrality ahead of the Fed

The environment was stable in other markets in the region:

💥• S&P/ASX 200 (Australia): stable

💥• Straits Times Index (Singapore): stable

Investors preferred to maintain conservative positions ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting, which started this Tuesday (6). The majority expectation is for interest rates to remain unchanged, but the focus is on Jerome Powell's statements, which may signal future changes.

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🇮🇩 Southeast Asia with slight optimism, but India pressures

Other Asian markets showed mixed movements:

💥• Jakarta Composite (Indonesia): +0.7%

💥• PSEi (Philippines): +0.4%

💥• Nifty 50 futures (India): -0.1%

In Indonesia and the Philippines, gains were sustained by financial and domestic consumption sectors. In India, the mood was tense: investors reacted negatively to the increase in geopolitical tensions with Pakistan, which pressured local assets and futures of India's main index.

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🇺🇸 US futures down slightly — full attention to the Fed

While Asian markets are up, US stock index futures traded with slight declines during the Asian overnight trading.

The sentiment is of strategic waiting: investors await the Federal Reserve's decision this Wednesday (7), with full attention to President Jerome Powell's speech, which could drastically influence the interest rate curve, risk appetite, and global capital flows.

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📅 Upcoming data on the radar: balance and inflation in China

The focus now shifts to two crucial points of the week:

💥1. Fed decision and speech (Wednesday, 7/5)

💥2. Release of China's trade balance and consumer price index (Friday, 9/5)

These events are expected to shape the direction of global stock markets, emerging markets, and risk assets in the coming cycles.

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✒️ Editorial Conclusion

The Asian market began the week in a tone of reconnection — with enough diplomatic statements to rekindle interest in risk, but not enough to provoke euphoria. The silence of major centers — Tokyo and Seoul — opened space for Beijing to shine, even amid mixed data from the real economy.

Now, the world holds its breath for Jerome Powell. If diplomacy calms, the Federal Reserve defines. And in an environment where every word moves billions, it is the verb — not the volume — that dictates the market's direction.