Historical patterns show that when BTC's upward trend pauses, speculative capital often flows into smaller market cap altcoins seeking excess returns. Currently, mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL have shown signs of capital inflow.
The market focus is on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Although the probability of a rate cut in May is zero, if Powell signals a rate cut in June, it could trigger significant volatility in global risk assets. CME interest rate futures indicate that the market has priced in an expectation of 125 basis points of rate cuts for the year, and the expectation of liquidity easing continues to boost sentiment in the crypto market.
On-chain data monitoring has found that the mysterious address marked as "Whale Spoofy" has recently been frequently rebalancing large amounts of altcoins, focusing on the AI sector (AGIX, FET) and Layer 2 ecosystem (ARB, STRK). Its trading trajectory is highly similar to that before the start of the altcoin season in 2023. Analysts suggest paying attention to altcoins with a market cap of $500 million to $2 billion, a price increase of less than 50% in the past 30 days, and increased on-chain activity, as these may become the primary targets for speculative capital rotation.
The market volatility index indicates that the crypto derivatives market has entered a "calm before the storm." Investors are advised to manage leverage ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and closely monitor whether BTC can hold the $100,000 level—this will be a key signal determining the timing of an altcoin market explosion.
