The changes in fundamentals over the past two weeks have been significant, one notable aspect being that investment sentiment is much stronger compared to when Bitcoin was over seventy thousand, reaching the greed zone. The US stock market has also rebounded considerably, with Trump and Bessenet continuously calming market panic and boosting morale, resulting in a notable easing of sentiment.

However, there are also many negative factors. One is that the GDP for the first quarter is -0.3%, which undoubtedly indicates recession. Fortunately, many institutions had already prepared the market with preventative measures, so the market's reaction hasn't been very intense. But it should be noted that this achievement was made without an escalation in the trade war. Starting in April, the high tariffs on China will likely make the second quarter GDP even worse. If there is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, there will be no need to speculate about recession expectations; it will be a confirmed recession. This is the first negative factor.

The second negative factor is related to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision meeting next week. It is almost a certainty that there will be no rate cuts, which won't have much impact because it has already been anticipated. However, how the Federal Reserve communicates its stance will be crucial in shaping market expectations. Currently, expectations for rate cuts are gradually declining. When the trade war first began, the market expected economic pressure, anticipating the Federal Reserve would cut rates four times, with a 100% probability of a cut in June. After a month, the probability of a rate cut in June has been continuously decreasing, and it may take until July for a rate cut to happen. This has also created pressure on the rebound of Bitcoin.

It has been exactly one month since April 2nd, and as of now, the US has not signed any trade agreements. If the situation continues to drag on, the market's ability to fulfill expectations will become increasingly difficult, leading to a risk of giving back gains. Signing an agreement in one month, two months, or three months will have different impacts on the market. Currently, the market's movement has almost fully priced in the “first trade agreement reached” and “China and the US starting negotiations,” but clearly, substantial positive news has not yet been seen. If subsequent bad news does not meet market expectations, a market correction would be reasonable.

At this stage, it is still advisable to maintain the expectation of mid-to-late term fluctuations and not to have excessive expectations for a market rebound in terms of time and space.