Ethereum Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations
Short-term support levels to watch are $1754 (20-day moving average) and $1600 (psychological level). A drop below these levels may trigger large-scale liquidations. Resistance is at $1920, and a breakthrough could challenge levels above $2000. The RSI (58.02) indicates moderate momentum, but the Bollinger Band volatility (BPI 140.12) suggests the market may enter a consolidation phase. Recently, prices have risen but trading volume has decreased, presenting a risk of 'volume-less rise' and caution is needed for potential pullbacks.
The Pectra upgrade (May 7) is an important positive factor, as the validator staking cap will increase to 2048 ETH, which could attract institutional funds and reduce selling pressure. However, if the upgrade effects fall short of expectations, it may trigger short-term selling. On the regulatory front, the UK FCA's plan to ban crypto loans could impact the DeFi ecosystem, while the EU's MiCA regulatory transition period is approaching, necessitating attention to compliance risks. Institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs (net inflow of $39.56 billion), while Ethereum ETFs only see $2.49 billion, limiting ETH's upside potential.
In terms of operations, if it stabilizes above $1800 in the short term and trading volume rebounds, a light long position can be attempted, targeting $1920, with a stop-loss below $1750. If the support at $1754 is broken, it may test $1600, and strict stop-loss measures are necessary. In the medium to long term, one can focus on improvements in on-chain data post-Pectra upgrade, with a target of $2000-2200 on dips. Caution is advised as weakness in US stocks could drag down ETH, with the current RSI nearing overbought levels (78), increasing the risk of pullback.
Additionally, the low market cap token on the Sol chain, Trump Hero Dog Conan (Co nan), is worth paying attention to, as it may have growth potential. However, be cautious of regulatory black swan events, technical pullbacks, and on-chain security incident risks.
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