On May 8, global financial markets are holding their breath awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision. However, interest rate cuts may not come as many expect. In fact, not cutting rates may not be scary; what is truly concerning is that the Fed is not even willing to draw up a 'rate cut expectation'.
The real necessary condition for interest rate cuts is actually very clear: first, inflation must be thoroughly controlled, and prices must stop rising before the Fed dares to take the step to cut rates. Secondly, the economic situation must be bad enough to be on the brink of collapse for the Fed to intervene and cut rates to save the economy. Therefore, based on the current situation, the probability of a rate cut in May is almost negligible.
The uncertainty of tariff policies adds further variables to the market. Unless inflation completely cools down or the economic situation deteriorates to an irretrievable extent, interest rate cuts will only be a daydream for investors.
U.S. President Trump seems to have very high expectations for interest rate cuts. He continually calls out on social media: 'No inflation, Fed hurry up and cut rates!' After all, cutting rates can stimulate economic growth and drive stock market increases, which are directly related to his performance in office.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also experiencing turmoil. On May 7, Ethereum underwent a major upgrade, but market sentiment was not high. Referring to past experience, the market tends to decline after each upgrade. Last time, Ethereum's price was cut in half from $4,000. However, this time, there is also the possibility of a rise followed by a fall.
The recent trend of Bitcoin appears very clear, with the market overall leaning bearish. The resistance levels above are at $95,600, $96,300, $96,800, and $97,500, while the support levels below are at $93,500, $92,800, $91,500, and $90,600. Investors need to closely monitor the price movements around $91,500; if this level is broken, Bitcoin may drop directly to $89,500, and could even further explore levels near $86,900.
For Ethereum, the key point today is around $1,810. If it cannot hold this position within one hour, the so-called 'rebound' is likely just an illusion, and the market will continue to be bearish.
At this moment full of uncertainty, investors need to remain calm and closely monitor the Fed's policy trends as well as the subtle changes in the market. After all, financial markets are never smooth sailing, and every fluctuation may bring new opportunities or challenges.
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