On Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the market widely expects the existing interest rate level to remain unchanged. Currently, the market's forecast for interest rate cuts is still concentrated in June-July, with expectations of only two rate cuts within the year. It is worth noting that even though recent political factors have caused disruptions, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has maintained a hawkish stance, and the likelihood of a rate cut at this meeting remains low.
At 2:30 AM, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. Historical data shows that his speeches often lead to significant market volatility, and in the cryptocurrency sector, a unique phenomenon known as the "Powell Effect" has even formed. However, investors need to remain rational and focus on changes in his wording rather than simply betting on market direction. In the current strong dollar environment, if dovish signals are unexpectedly released, the market may experience a sharp reversal.
On Thursday evening at 8:30 PM, the initial unemployment claims data for the week will be released. Although this data has relatively limited impact, it could still trigger short-term fluctuations of around 500 points, and traders need to manage their risks accordingly. A special reminder: the interest rate decision and Powell's speech could trigger thousands of points of market turbulence, so it is advisable for investors to prepare their position management and risk prevention measures in advance.
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