The most important highlight this week is still the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. This time, there will only be a rate decision and a press conference. Basically, there won't be a rate cut in May, maintaining the interest rate is the script, and the economic data released last week are all leaning towards the positive side, providing more reason to continue observing. The remarks are expected to be neutral to hawkish, which is normal.

The main reason for the major market adjustment is still the impact of Zheng Ce, and equally important is the tariff negotiations. Early this morning, Trump said he would impose a 100% tariff on imported movies, which caused a slight panic in the market. The negotiations between Japan and the US are not going smoothly, threatening movie tariffs, and other negotiations have just begun, all of which could raise market concerns again, leading to insufficient upward momentum. Last Friday, the market was stagnant. The economic data and fundamentals last week were strong enough that the market is not worried about a recession in the short term; confidence remains. Before the interest rate meeting, the market will still be cautious. Recently, Bitcoin is expected to perform weaker than US stocks. Typically, before significant meetings, there are either risk-averse positions escaping or a wait-and-see attitude.

I believe that this meeting will likely not result in a rate cut in May, and there is a high probability of a rate cut in June, primarily depending on Powell's speech, to see if he can boost market sentiment. Because once a beneficial sentiment emerges from such meetings, the sentiment for the next one or two months, or a quarter, can generally be understood, referring to the impact of Old Powell's speech last Christmas, which lasted until after Trump took office, before there was a change.