Is it a rebound or a reversal?

It is still a rebound. The rise from 73,000 to 97,000 has not broken the previous high of 109,000, so it cannot be considered a reversal. A reversal needs a story and capital support. Without sufficient liquidity, let alone altcoins, even small-cap stocks in the US market have to oscillate at the bottom. Nowadays, funds are concentrated in BTC and leading tech stocks, with little movement in other sectors. Without sector rotation, the market is unlikely to experience a comprehensive reversal. Previously, when BTC rose from 10,000 to 30,000, 70,000, and 100,000, there were clear logical reasons behind it, such as the approval of the BTC ETF and policy expectations brought by Trump's presidency. However, since Trump took office, there have been no new stories in this market, and it can only oscillate at high levels.

A real reversal requires a new story to emerge, such as favorable new policies or market hotspots, followed by capital inflow and a breakthrough in coin prices to confirm the reversal. Therefore, we should first see if we can return to the 100,000 high point before last year's unfavorable tariff policies. If we can, it indicates that capital and confidence are still decent, and one can be optimistic. But if even this is difficult, it shows a lack of confidence among everyone, and then we should wait and see.

In summary, the narrative for the rest of this year is about interest rate cuts. #美国稳定币法案 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #加密市场回调