The big non-farm payroll data shocks the market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations collapse!
The recent economic data from the United States is too bizarre!
In April, non-farm payrolls surged to 170,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 135,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.187% to 4.152%.
At first glance, the economic data is dazzling, and the U.S. stock market has seen nine consecutive days of gains, filling in the holes created by the trade war.
However, a closer look reveals that the government laid off 280,000 workers while non-farm employment only decreased by 9,000.
According to the statistical criteria, those who were laid off but received severance pay are still counted as “employed”! This data is so inflated it could raise fish and cannot cover up the hidden crisis in the job market.
The return of manufacturing is just a joke! The so-called “king of understanding” boasts about the revival of manufacturing, but manufacturing jobs only account for 8%, and this time it even slightly declined.
Instead, the healthcare industry has become the backbone of employment; in plain terms, the U.S. economy still relies on the service industry, while the real economy is very fragile.
The most critical point is that this “fake prosperity” has directly shattered the Fed's expectations for an interest rate cut in June!
Originally, the market was betting on a 60%+ chance of a rate cut, but now it has dropped to 40%.
If there is no rate cut in June, the issues of shortages and price increases brought by the trade war will soon backfire on the economy, and the U.S. is likely to plunge back into a recession.
Now, the more the U.S. stock market rises, the greater the risk, especially in the cryptocurrency market—Bitcoin has reached new highs, but mainstream altcoins refuse to follow the rise! This situation is too strange; if altcoins do not manage to break out with a significant upward movement next week, the short-term peak will basically be confirmed, and what should rise will not rise, and there will definitely be a drop!
This wave of non-farm data is a carefully designed smokescreen; the capital market has been fooled into a frenzy, but the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates will eventually come to light.
Now both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market are like dancing on the edge of a cliff, especially altcoins; if they do not perform well, a crash is imminent.
With interest rate cuts approaching, I plan to publicly set up a speculative coin, expecting a tenfold increase in the short term and a hundredfold in the long term. The same market conditions, top strategies, follow along and witness everything.
