The market logic is quietly changing, and we may be on the eve of a major market shift.
Recently, the market trends have become increasingly strange. U.S. stocks have surged, which should typically strengthen the dollar, but it hasn't budged, and U.S. Treasury bonds continue to decline. This phenomenon of being 'counterintuitive' clearly indicates a disconnect in logic. Normally, when market confidence is restored, the dollar should strengthen, but the opposite is happening now.
Asian currencies have collectively surged in recent days; this is not a coincidence, but rather a sign of funds accelerating their exit from the U.S. and shifting to other markets. It's not a wait-and-see approach; it's a retreat.
Previously, we mentioned 'Dollar Tide 2.0'—large funds have already completed their positioning during the interest rate hike cycle. Many people missed out on Bitcoin's recent surge due to habitual thinking: believing that rate hikes should lead to drops and rate cuts should lead to rises. The market evolves in cycles, but the paths are often different; replicating past experiences often leads to losses.
Now, the interrelationship between the dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. Treasury bonds has completely broken down. The dollar no longer moves in sync with U.S. stocks; instead, it's retail investors propping up the stocks while institutions are gradually reducing their positions. Goldman Sachs' research report clearly points out that the recent rise in U.S. stocks is driven by retail investors 'buying more as prices rise,' while institutions are slowly exiting.
Many people say that funds are going to buy gold as a safe haven, but gold is also showing clear signs of peaking, and short positions have been largely cleared. Traditional safe-haven assets like the yen and euro are also faltering, and funds are starting to speculate on some non-mainstream currencies, such as the Hong Kong dollar and Thai baht, similar to how cryptocurrencies trade 'altcoins'—indicating that mainstream assets are no longer considered safe.
What is the essence of this? The market is seeking an escape route outside of the dollar system, even if it involves higher risks. Warren Buffett's statement about not selling Japanese trading companies for the next 30 years is essentially a judgment on the long-term demand for safe havens.
What does this have to do with cryptocurrencies? If the credit of the dollar continues to collapse, the next wave of funds seeking an exit will likely flow into crypto assets. Currently, low-value altcoins and commodities are potential breakout points.
We may be standing at a critical stage of the last shift. If we seize this opportunity, the potential for future returns is vast; if we miss it, we can only be a buyer at the peak when the bull market arrives.
Remember: the true logic behind Bitcoin's rise is not how strong it is on its own, but rather how the dollar and fiat currency systems are deteriorating. What we are earning is the money from the continued devaluation of the dollar's credit.