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Federal Reserve's May interest rate decision leans hawkish? Dovish expectations carry risks!

Interest rates maintained at 4.25%-4.50%, core PCE inflation at 2.8% exceeds expectations, June rate cut probability surges to 64%, first rate cut may be delayed until July!

In the crypto space, bulls are calling for BTC to break 100,000 in the short term, but overbought signals are flashing: the risk of a pullback at 93,000-95,000 is increasing, a breakthrough requires sustained institutional capital inflow

Mid-term scenario: If a rate cut happens in July, BTC could surge to 120,000, looking at 150,000-200,000 by year-end (historical cycle law)!

Currently, institutional ETF holdings are surging, MicroStrategy is increasing positions against the trend, but beware of the “buy the expectation, sell the news” trap.