Macroeconomic Background and Market Dynamics
Last week's concerns over trade tensions eased. Despite the divergence in economic data, the non-farm payroll report was stronger than expected (with 177,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%). US stocks have recovered the ground lost due to April's tariff impacts within two weeks. Market volatility was triggered by Trump's first hundred days in office, with gold leading the gains, while US stocks, the dollar, and US bonds performed poorly. The Fed maintained its policy patience due to robust employment data, and market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have cooled to nearly four times, but Trump continues to pressure for rate cuts. Signs of weakness in consumption, employment, and manufacturing indicate increasing challenges for the US economy. 'Oracle of Omaha' Warren Buffett’s comments upon stepping down drew attention as he stated, 'Tariffs are acts of war' and sees long-term opportunities at low levels.
Key Events and Data This Week
Market Focus Shifts to Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators:
- Fed Rate Decision (Thursday 2:00): Expected to keep rates unchanged, with the policy statement and Powell's speech likely to signal rate cut clues for the second half of the year. Non-farm data has decreased the likelihood of a rate cut in June, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing their first rate cut expectations to July.
- Economic Data: China and US Services PMI (Monday/Tuesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), Inflation Expectations (Thursday) will reveal economic resilience.
- Central Bank Officials' Speeches (Intensive on Friday): Several officials including New York Fed President Williams will signal policy stances.
Market Rhythm and Market Closure Impact
- Market Closure Arrangements: Markets in Japan and South Korea, Europe, and many regions in China will be closed from Monday to Tuesday, potentially limiting trading activity.
- Market Outlook: Key support range 9500-9750 (the original text '950-1750' seems to be a typo). If this level holds, the upward trend will continue. If Thursday and Friday's news is favorable, it may test 9900-10200 (the original text '990/2000' seems to be a typo); if clear guidance is lacking, it may continue to fluctuate sideways. Long-term, the low position is gradually rising, and the market tends to be structurally optimistic.
Strategy Tips
Pay attention to the Fed's policy wording and data guidance, be wary of fluctuations under news impacts. In the short term, rely on key positions to play long and short, while the logic of positioning at low points in the medium to long term remains unchanged.#欧盟隐私币禁令 $BTC $ETH
