Is the likelihood of the U.S. buying large amounts of Bitcoin extremely low? Arthur Hayes: The debt abyss + stereotype thinking are stumbling blocks

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes conducted an in-depth analysis of the likelihood of the United States making large purchases of Bitcoin reserves, considering two major aspects: fiscal difficulties and social perception, and concluded that the possibility is extremely low. (Background: Arthur Hayes' latest interview: Bitcoin and Ethereum have bottomed out, where will the new liquidity come from? How to select targets at this stage?) (Additional context: Arthur Hayes: 'Now' may be the last chance to buy Bitcoin under $100,000!) Recently, discussions about the U.S. potentially expanding its Bitcoin (BTC) strategic reserves have intensified, especially as President Trump is expected to submit a related report from the Treasury Department this week, sparking widespread speculation. However, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes poured cold water on this idea. In a recent interview, he bluntly stated that given the continuously expanding national debt and the specific social image of Bitcoin, the likelihood of the U.S. government actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin on the open market is almost negligible. The U.S. government's fiscal pressure cannot bear Bitcoin purchases. Hayes believes that as a typical 'deficit nation,' the increasingly severe fiscal situation in the U.S. constrains the possibility of actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin. He pointed out that the aging U.S. population leads to increased social welfare spending, defense spending remains high, and the interest on national debt continues to rise due to a high-interest-rate environment, resulting in the national debt exceeding $34 trillion, with a structurally expanding fiscal deficit. Under such enormous fiscal pressure, he believes it would be difficult for the government to mobilize substantial funds to purchase Bitcoin on the open market, as this expenditure would be hard to rationalize to taxpayers and the public. However, in the face of massive debt, Hayes anticipates that the U.S. Treasury will have to issue more national debt to raise funds. To ensure that this national debt can be absorbed by the market, the Treasury may even seek regulatory relaxation, such as allowing banks to be exempt from capital requirements on national debt to encourage institutions like banks to purchase its debt. He emphasized that this potential liquidity injection, while not traditional quantitative easing (QE) in the conventional sense, would instead be more beneficial for the performance of risk assets like Bitcoin, rather than the government directly purchasing Bitcoin to boost the market. Social image and political resistance: Who is willing to stand with 'Bitcoin'? In addition to economic considerations, Hayes also raised significant social and political obstacles. He described that some Bitcoin investors are often seen as 'Bitcoin Bros' with a specific social image, questioning whether any 'duly elected' government officials would be willing to take political risks by linking government policy or asset allocation to this potentially controversial image. In public debates about fiscal responsibility, the government using funds obtained through 'printing money,' i.e., raising funds through the issuance of national debt to purchase Bitcoin, would face tremendous political resistance, making it an extremely unpopular policy. Hayes pointed out that the nearly 200,000 Bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government mainly come from assets seized during criminal investigations, such as the famous Silk Road dark web case and the Bitfinex hacking case. He believes that without such asset seizures, the likelihood of the U.S. government significantly expanding its Bitcoin reserves through open market purchases is extremely low. Different voices in the market and future outlook Despite Hayes' cautious stance on the U.S. actively purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin, there are still other differing views and predictions in the market. Some members of the cryptocurrency community believe that any form of 'strategic reserve' action by the U.S. government, even if merely symbolic, could send a strong signal to other countries globally, potentially igniting a wave of purchases of Bitcoin by central banks or sovereign wealth funds worldwide. For example, there are ongoing Bitcoin reserve initiatives being launched across states in the U.S. (although Arizona's governor recently vetoed a BTC reserve bill passed in the third reading, breaking the country's first state to incorporate Bitcoin into official reserves). Additionally, there are views suggesting that the U.S. government might raise funds by selling its seized alternative coins (Altcoins) and then use these funds to purchase Bitcoin, thus achieving a form of fiscally neutral purchasing behavior, reducing the direct use of treasury funds. However, although Hayes remains cautious about whether the U.S. government will make large purchases of Bitcoin, he still anticipates that the price of Bitcoin may reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, and experience a bull market peak between 2026 and 2027, ultimately reaching $1 million by 2028. Related reports: Tether Q1 report: Holding nearly $120 billion in U.S. debt, setting a record, earning $1 billion in a single quarter. Tether's cross-chain stablecoin USDT0 launches on Flare! $FLR surged 18%, is the XRP DeFi ecosystem benefiting? "Is the likelihood of the U.S. buying large amounts of Bitcoin extremely low? Arthur Hayes: The debt abyss + stereotype thinking are stumbling blocks" was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).