This year, many people may have noticed a subtle phenomenon: many smokers are buying cigarettes faster, without needing to take the stairs or the elevator. While observing these micro-behavior changes, we should also turn our attention to the macroeconomic level. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have been continuously declining, a signal that is worth paying close attention to — it not only reflects the market's adjustment in expectations for economic growth but may also indicate deeper financial turmoil.

It is worth noting that the recently disclosed GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 showed negative growth, shrinking by 0.3% year-on-year, marking the worst performance since 2022. This data reflects a significant decline in economic growth momentum. Alarmingly, this slowdown is occurring against a backdrop of escalating global supply chain frictions and rising trade protectionism — if even the defensive tactics against the trade war fail to offset the economic downturn, it highlights the inherent vulnerability of the economy.

In this context, political factors may exacerbate market volatility. As a unique figure who embodies both businessman and politician identities, if Trump returns to the White House, his habitual "business mindset" could become an unstable factor in the financial market. Looking back at his first term, it showcased a dual-strike strategy against the capital market: on one hand, tightening regulations on digital currencies to withdraw liquidity from the crypto space, and on the other hand, using family assets to position for short-selling profits in U.S. stocks. This "harvesting" style of governance essentially creates market volatility through policy disturbances to generate arbitrage opportunities for specific capital operations. If he regains power, similar market manipulation tactics may become even more intensified.

Based on a comprehensive judgment of multiple overlapping variables, 2025-2026 may become a critical turning point for international financial markets. From the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to the deterioration of corporate profitability, from the accumulation of geopolitical risks to the narrowing of monetary policy space, these signs together point to a brewing systemic crisis. Especially in the U.S. stock market, the current divergence between a high valuation environment and a slowing real economy is becoming increasingly evident. If coupled with the impact of political uncertainty, a year-end circuit breaker may not be mere alarmism — this will be another severe test of the resilience of the financial system following the shocks of the pandemic in 2020.