Analyze the fierce competition between bulls and bears in the recent two phases of sideways trading through data:
First sideways trading range: 83-85, duration one week, ultimately broke through and attracted $1 billion in long and short funds to enter the market, ultimately the bears stopped loss or liquidated around 93, and the bulls won decisively;
【Details as follows】:
On April 21, Bitcoin began to attempt to break through and stand above 87, with contract positions rapidly increasing by $400 million at this time, and the main short positions near 87 did not surrender;
Thus, the market continued to break upward, increasing contract positions again by $700 million between 88-90. At this time, $1 billion in short funds had intervened, meaning that the main short positions did not exit between 88-90 but continued to increase positions, betting on a market pullback;
Ultimately, Bitcoin chose a strong breakout at the critical resistance level of 92-93 on April 23, approaching 95, directly wiping out $500 million in short positions, and the main bulls also took profit on $500 million in positions during this rally. Subsequently, in the consolidation process between 95-93, the remaining $300 million in short positions began to gradually surrender. Thus, the short positions that built $1 billion from 85 to 90 had basically surrendered;
Second sideways trading range: 93-95, duration again one week, and ultimately broke through again attracting $600 million in long and short funds to enter the market. Currently, it seems that this round of breakout lacks strength, and $200 million in short and long funds have begun to gradually exit;
【Details as follows】:
Starting on May 1, an attempt to break through attracted both long and short parties to enter the market again. In such a small range of 95-97, a total of $600 million was invested by both sides. When it first reached 97, it quickly fell back 1000 points to 96, at which time $150 million in short-term funds exited;
Last night, Bitcoin broke through to 978 again, and the funds that had exited entered the market to compete again. Ultimately, Bitcoin encountered resistance and fell back, and currently there are signs that funds from both sides are beginning to exit;
How can we explain this phenomenon of declining positions due to short-term exits? If there is no significant breakthrough or breakdown, these short-term exiting funds are all profitable, indicating that this is actually the profit-taking operations of the bears who entered later and the bulls who entered before the breakthrough;