Technical analysis of INIT/USDT from 4 different timeframe charts indicates the market is sending clear divergence signals, especially between trend indicators and momentum. Below is a summary of the main signals and corresponding trading strategies:

1. Trend and EMA

  • Short-term EMA (7) compared to medium and long-term EMA (25, 99):

    • In images 1 and 3, EMA(7) has crossed below EMA(25) and EMA(99), signaling a prevailing downtrend.

    • In images 2 and 4, EMA(7) fluctuates around EMA(25), indicating hesitation and no clear trend formation.

      → The bearish signal is prevailing, but further confirmation from price action is needed.

2. RSI: Signs of overbought and divergence

  • RSI(6):

    • Image 1: 58.93 (neutral)

    • Image 2: 75.19 (overbought)

    • Image 3: 47.49 (near oversold)

    • Image 4: 86.45 (strongly overbought)

→ RSI shows signs of divergence, especially in images 2 and 4. This indicates that buying pressure may have peaked and the likelihood of a downward adjustment is high.

3. MACD: Buying momentum is weakening

  • Image 1: Slightly positive MACD (0.0014), but the signal line (DIF) is lower than the average line (DEA) → Weak buying force

  • Image 2: Strong positive MACD (0.0039), DIF > DEA → Confirmation of short-term uptrend

  • Image 4: MACD remains positive (0.0023) but is narrowing → Signaling a potential reversal

→ Buying momentum is weakening, increasing the risk of adjustment or reversal.

4. Trading volume

  • Images 1 and 3: Large volume (13.8M – 161.2M) while the price declines → Strong selling pressure

  • Images 2 and 4: Very low volume (<1M) → Lack of liquidity, potential for sudden price fluctuations

→ Investors should be cautious of 'fake breakout' candles in low liquidity conditions.

5. Important support and resistance

  • Main support zone: 0.6729 – 0.7270

  • Resistance zone: 0.7460 – 0.8192 (near EMA(99) and previous peak)

Proposed trading strategy

Scenario 1: Short selling

  • Entry point:

    • When the price breaks below the support zone 0.7270 or RSI(6) drops below 50

  • Take profit: 0.6729

  • Stop loss: 0.7460

  • Estimated success probability: ~65%

    → Based on the declining EMA, overbought RSI, and dominant selling volume

Scenario 2: Bottom buying

  • Conditions:

    • Price drops to the zone 0.6729, RSI(6) below 30 (oversold) and MACD starts to converge

  • Take profit: 0.7460

  • Stop loss: 0.6531 (below the nearest bottom)

  • Estimated success probability: ~50%

    → Should only be executed if the market shows clear recovery signals

Capital and risk management

  • Optimal R:R ratio: 1:2 (for example: loss 1%, profit 2%)

  • Position size: No more than 2% of total capital to limit risk during high market volatility

Note: Need to closely monitor macro news and BTC price action – if BTC undergoes a deep correction, INIT may decline with the overall market.

$INIT

$USDC