I just finished drinking with friends, and a fan privately messaged me asking how I anticipated this altcoin correction ahead of April 28. Most people on Twitter actually just want to hear a simple answer of whether to go long or short, only a few will want to explore the reasons behind it. I am more than happy to answer and share such questions; firstly, it is also a process of reflection and reconsideration for me; secondly, my trading journey has been largely self-taught due to my unique personality, and I have faced many difficulties. I admire the courage to reach out to strangers for advice and discussion, which is something I need to learn.

I will briefly outline my judgment process; it may not always be correct, trading is subjective within the objective, for the reference of friends who love trading. Regarding the related technical content mentioned below, everyone can research further on their own.

1. From the perspective of volume-price relationship, a large number of altcoins here do not have a period of accumulation.

2. From the perspective of K-line trends, a large number of altcoins have not gone through a consolidation phase at the daily level, and the probability of a direct V reversal is very low.

3. From a Dow theory perspective, a large number of altcoins here do not have a clear daily level 123.

4. From the perspective of wave theory, in the main downtrend of wave 8, a large number of altcoins should be undergoing a corrective rebound A wave after the main downtrend of wave 5, followed by a corrective downtrend B wave.

5. From the perspective of moving averages, a large number of altcoins have not touched the EMA99 even once on the daily chart, and are still far from EMA200. Transitioning from a bearish cycle to a bullish cycle also needs to be done step by step. This time, many altcoins have already achieved a 50%-100% increase in this rebound, directly breaking through the bearish moving averages, and forming a bullish crossover; the probability of this happening is very low.

6. Above the V reversal of $BTC, there are clear resistance levels at the weekly and daily levels. On April 28, many altcoins had already shown signs of stagnation and had formed bearish structures. Altcoins are the most sensitive species, all act according to $BTC's movements, and many retail investors are aware of this. The market makers of altcoins understand the overall market situation better than retail investors, so in a certain sense, if they want to trap retail investors again, they need to retreat under the cover of BTC before its decline; otherwise, when BTC leads the overall market to correct, it will be difficult to trap more retail investors.

In summary, trading is a combination of patient rational analysis and subjective judgment. If each aspect is scored out of 5, with a total score of 10, looking at the current market directly starting a full position to go long: the former scores at most 1 point, and my subjective judgment at most 2 points, totaling 3 points. We are still halfway away from passing 6 points. Conversely, looking at shorting, that would be a score of 7 points.

Knowing it is a score of 7, then one should act in accordance with their knowledge and short this wave of correction.

This is my trading thought process for everyone's reference. Passion is the driving force behind everything. I wish to say to friends who continue to trade during the May Day holiday, may you ultimately find the path (and I too).