Life and death are determined by fate, wealth and nobility by heaven? The altcoins you hold might be about to soar!
It's not good; there are major changes in the Wall Street interest rate market. Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next week? The outcome is unexpected.
Which coins are worth laying out now, and what new operations does the whale Spoofy have? Let's take a look with Shuqin~
First of all, the altcoin season may be coming again because one of the criteria for altcoin surges is Bitcoin breaking its previous high. Once it stops rising, speculative funds will seek profits in smaller market cap altcoins.
Since Bitcoin has already broken through, there is a significant chance for Pepe, WIF, Floki, and other altcoins to catch up. Everyone can take advantage of this. However, if Bitcoin quickly falls back and cannot reclaim its position, a season for altcoins cannot form, so everyone should be cautious about this.
The above is for short-term trading. For medium to long-term positions, you might need to consider selling at high points this time. This legendary whale, Spoofy, who has a 100% win rate, started reducing his holdings when the crowd was loud. At this rate, he will likely finish taking profits in about 14 days. So, for long-term positions, make sure to take some profits if there are high points in the next few days.
Everyone should take this seriously. Last year Spoofy successfully timed the market at 70,000 and again at 100,000 this year, starting to build positions at the low points of 50,000 and 70,000. His timing has been very precise, and he himself holds 6 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. Following his trades is much better than trading with retail investors.
Previously, when Bitcoin was above 70,000, we encouraged everyone to enter the market, referencing Spoofy. At that time, many people thought a bear market was coming, and it would drop to 50,000 or even 30,000, but they all missed the bottom. This time, the whales are continuously selling off. Although he doesn't always sell at the top, the current price is relatively close to the top. I think we are about to play a few more days of altcoin catch-up.
The above is based on the whale Spoofy. However, if you look at on-chain data, it is actually much better. For example, the average cost for short-term holders has reached 93,000, exceeding the SMA, which means people are willing to buy Bitcoin at prices higher than the average. This is often a bullish signal; last November, this triggered a bull market.
However, if you look back to last August, the average holding price for short-term holders also exceeded the SMA but quickly fell back down. So, we still need to observe closely. I'm more inclined to follow Spoofy; he reduced his holdings by 30%, so I will do the same. Whenever he increases his holdings again, I will follow suit. Choice is greater than effort; we should reference smart money to help us better understand the big trend.
Another important reference indicator in the crypto market is closely related to U.S. stocks. Although the S&P 500 seems to have broken through its previous consolidation area, from a larger perspective, it has entered another resistance area because this is the 0.618-0.66 golden ratio of the entire first half of the year’s drop and rebound. That’s why Shuqin is being cautious.
Because now is different from when we were bottom-fishing before. At that time, all currencies were at low points, the greed-fear index was at extreme fear, and the whales were entering the market. All the data signaled us to all-in and bottom-fish.
Now that the whales are taking profits and the greed-fear index has reached greed, it isn't far from extreme greed. Entering the market at this time has a very low risk-reward ratio, so I'm only trading short-term. For example, I saw that U.S. stock futures broke through, so I immediately informed everyone that Bitcoin might also break through.
Wow, just two hours after saying that, Bitcoin flew from 94,000 to 97,000, and Ethereum broke its previous high again. These data points are really crucial; interested parties can take a look.
Okay, let's continue.
The Federal Reserve's meeting that the whole world is paying attention to will start next Thursday. This is crucial for whether there will be a rate cut in June because the Federal Reserve usually gives hints in the meeting before a rate cut to prepare the market. So while there is a 100% certainty that there will be no rate cut next Thursday, Powell will definitely reveal the direction of a potential rate cut in June, which will definitely cause a stir.
So will there be a rate cut in June? We can take a look at the interest rate market.
Unfortunately, the Wall Street interest rate market suddenly collapsed, which surprised me greatly. The probability of a rate cut in June dropped sharply from last week's high of 67% to the current 53%. June might really surprise us and not cut rates, and the market may not be prepared for this bad news.
After all, Wednesday's PCE inflation data dropped significantly, and Thursday's new unemployment claims also surged, even GDP showed a negative number. Therefore, from both economic and employment perspectives, the Federal Reserve has reasons to start cutting rates, so the predictions of the Wall Street interest rate market are indeed a bit pessimistic.
I think if Powell continues to clash with Trump and misses the window for early interest rate cuts, a small recession may be unavoidable. Trump has gone crazy; we can't afford to have another one.
Fortunately, the crypto market is not just about U.S. assets; it is linked to global assets. Although the U.S. rate cut is uncertain, both the EU and the East are actively cutting rates, which has caused the global money supply M2 to soar. This is usually a bullish signal.
Now we are just waiting for Powell to make a move. If interest rates continue to fall from June, there will be a double benefit. The crypto market could rise from June to the end of the year, followed by a final surge. I hope everything goes smoothly, and don't forget to follow me~