🔍 Definition
"Non-Farm" full name Non-Farm Employment Data (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of every month, counts the changes in the number of jobs outside agriculture in the U.S., and is one of the most important indicators of the health of the U.S. economy.
📊 Core Components of Data
1. Non-Farm Employment Population
- New Jobs Added (e.g. May 2025 data is +185,000)
- >200,000: Economic Overheating → Interest Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up
- <100,000: Economic Recession → Enhanced Interest Rate Cut Expectations
2. Unemployment Rate
- May 2025 is 3.8% (historically low usually < 4%)
- Unemployment Rate ↑ → Signal of Economic Weakness
3. Average Hourly Wage Growth
- Reflecting Inflation Pressure (e.g. +0.2% month-on-month in May, below expectations)
- Rapid Wage Growth → The Federal Reserve May Raise Rates to Curb Inflation
🌍 Why Are Global Markets Watching Non-Farm Payrolls?
1. Federal Reserve Policy Indicator
- Strong Data → Interest Rate Hikes/Maintaining High Rates → Dollar Appreciation, Risk Assets (Stocks, Cryptocurrencies) Under Pressure
- Weak Data → Interest Rate Cut Expectations → Dollar Depreciation, Inflation Hedge Assets like Gold/BTC Rise
2. Bitcoin's "Alternative Response Logic"
- Non-Farm Payrolls → Interest Rate Cut Expectations → Liquidity Easing Benefits BTC (BTC rose 3% in a single day after May 2025 data)
- But if the data triggers economic panic → Short-term Sell-off (needs to be assessed in conjunction with CPI and other data)
📉 Actual Impact on Ordinary People
- Traders: Extremely high volatility one hour before and after Non-Farm Payrolls announcement, proceed with caution!
- Investors: Long-term holders focus on the "Unemployment Rate + Hourly Wage" combination to assess the turning point of Federal Reserve policies.
- Onlookers: If you want to predict major trends in the crypto market, Non-Farm + CPI + FOMC are the "three essentials" to track.