Bitcoin recently hit $97,930, breaking out of a tight trading range. This move followed a strong wave of institutional buying, including nearly $4 billion in ETF inflows. Yet, future traders are still cautious. Coinglass data shows BTC’s futures premium is neutral, between 6% and 7%. That’s down from earlier highs, signaling less conviction about a near-term rally past $100K.
Options data looks slightly more optimistic. The 25% delta skew suggests traders expect upside. Still, low leverage use shows they’re staying defensive. Analysts think macro risks and global tensions are capping bullish sentiment. For now, the price push feels steady but not euphoric.
MicroStrategy and Saylor Push the Bitcoin Mantra
Michael Saylor is leading the charge again. In April, MicroStrategy bought over 25,370 BTC, spending more than $2.4 billion. This included a $1.42 billion buy at $92,737 per coin. Wall Street analysts back the move. They believe Strategy’s $84 billion capital plan is bold but doable.
MSTR now trades well above the value of its BTC holdings. Still, analysts say that’s justified. Saylor’s “Bitcoin standard” mantra is reshaping how companies view balance sheets. If more firms follow, BTC could gain stability and demand. As Saylor put it, adoption drives price—and pressure to join builds fast.
BTC Faces the FED and a Weakening US Dollar
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s May 7 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, most expect rates to hold steady. But tone matters. A dovish message could trigger another BTC surge. A hawkish one might push the price back toward key support at $92,000 or even lower.
The US dollar is another wildcard. The DXY has fallen 11% over the past 100 days. If it keeps dropping, Bitcoin could benefit. Analysts often note BTC’s inverse relationship with the dollar. A weak dollar helps hard assets like Bitcoin look stronger to investors.
Bitcoin and Seasonality – A Risk Traders Know Well
Bitcoin isn’t immune to market seasons. “Sell in May and go away” isn’t just for stocks anymore. Coinglass data shows BTC tends to struggle in May and June. In 2021, it dropped 35%. In 2022, another 15%. Even last year’s gain was modest.
Q3 returns are usually flat or slightly negative. That’s why many future traders are pulling back now. Altcoins, especially meme coins, could be hit hardest if the pullback comes. While past performance isn’t destiny, sentiment often follows history. As summer nears, caution is creeping in.
What Analysts Expect as Bitcoin Tests $100K
Analysts agree Bitcoin has room to run, but the next move depends on several factors. Seasonality, macro data, and the FED’s tone are key. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy is doubling down, and that’s boosting long-term confidence. But future traders want clearer signals before betting big.
Bitcoin is hovering just below a psychological milestone. If bulls get the green light from the FED and the dollar keeps falling, $100K could come fast. But if traders stick to the seasonal playbook, the rally may pause. In the end, Bitcoin’s next chapter depends on how these forces collide.
