The most awkward situation in the current bull market

So far, we have seen a bull market for BTC and a bear market for ETH and altcoins

First, it is important to clarify that price movements are the result of the actions of major players, and it has never been said that retail investors can influence market trends. Of course, with BTC's market cap close to 2 trillion and ETH 200 billion, there is no absolute controlling trader, but there are still relatively significant players. The second point is that major players collect chips at low levels to sell them at high levels for profit. How to make money? Collecting chips incurs costs, and driving up prices also incurs costs. Only during sideways and downward fluctuations can major players sell their holdings, which retail investors refer to as 'catching the falling knife.' The way to determine whether it's 'catching the falling knife' or just catching the bag depends on trading volume.

In simple terms, you look at whether the major players still have coins left to sell. If the major players still have a lot of coins in hand, it is highly likely they are 'catching the falling knife.' If they have sold all their coins, then it means they are just catching bags at high levels.

Looking at BTC from July 2022 to March 2023 in terms of trading volume, the major players have already completed their turnover and accumulation, and since April, the trading volume has sharply declined. However, this small trading volume can still drive up prices; during the more than six-month consolidation phase from March to October 2024, major players awkwardly realized that even if retail investors are foolish, no one would FOMO at the 70k position. Retail investors want to get in, but the major players are pulling up prices too fast; over a year, it has just been price increases with no pullbacks. One reason is that BTC has no trapped positions because the washout in 2022 was too thorough. The second reason is that the major players are too greedy, being unforgiving and giving retail investors no opportunity to make money. Therefore, the major players can quickly drive prices up to high levels at low costs, but it is very difficult to sell their holdings. Retail investors express that they do not want to play along with the major players' performances and instead buy ETH and altcoins. The major players say they won't sell, so how does liquidity flow to ETH or altcoins? Now it is stuck here; BTC's market share continues to reach new highs, yet it is a bear market for altcoins. This is also why so many people feel that this round of the bull market is 'bullish or bearish.'