BTC breaks 98,000, how do we see the market next? Rebound or reversal?

Recently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen a surge, just as we predicted earlier. I said at that time that even if there was a slight drop first, there was a high probability of a rebound afterwards. Looking at it now, Bitcoin's performance is stronger, currently sitting in the key resistance zone of 97,000 to 98,000. However, although the price has risen, the trading volume has not increased, indicating that large funds are still on the sidelines, and market sentiment is inconsistent.

Everyone is waiting for several important news, such as the possible interest rate cut on May 7, and the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which could affect the short-term market direction. The current market is still not too strong, especially for Ethereum and small altcoins, which have been slow to rise, leading to a release of FOMO sentiment, and the market is still oscillating repeatedly.

There may be a "downward insert" action later, washing out high-leverage bulls before starting a real upward trend. Many people are still observing or bearish; only when the price rises to a point that makes them doubt their judgment will they chase higher into the market. Recently, the market has been less volatile, and the retracement has been very limited, gradually breaking everyone's "bear market mentality."

If Bitcoin can break 100,000, it will bring a strong psychological impact. Many who sold at the bottom will be forced to enter the market and take over, and the market could be very intense, similar to the "Heaven and Earth Needle" we saw last December. Although Ethereum is currently weak, historical data suggests it is highly likely to rise later.

The ETH/BTC exchange rate is also at a critical position; in the past, every time it dropped to this level, it started to rebound. Although it won't reverse directly, it may rise first and then retest for confirmation, similar to what happened in 2019.

Bitcoin's market share continues to rise, absorbing most of the market's funds, but this will not last indefinitely. Once it peaks, small altcoins will have the opportunity to start. From a timing perspective, May is a key node, consistent with our previous judgments.