#非农就业数据来袭 Breaking news! The U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, and Trump's tariffs surprisingly became an "employment catalyst"?
Just when everyone thought Trump's tariff hammer would smash the job market, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped a "bombshell" this morning—non-farm employment rose by 177,000 in April, far exceeding the expected 138,000! The unemployment rate remains rock-solid, but wage growth has hit the brakes. Is this an economic miracle or the calm before the storm?
1. Data reversal: Employment frenzy under the shadow of tariffs
While the White House is still tangled in the political game of imposing a 25% tariff on China, the U.S. job market has staged a "counter-cyclical surge." The healthcare industry added 51,000 jobs in a single month, with job ads for hospitals and clinics flooding across the U.S.; the transportation and warehousing industry is even crazier, adding 29,000 jobs, a six-month high, with Amazon warehouse forklift drivers overwhelmed with work!
Even more shocking is that despite the manufacturing sector losing 1,000 jobs, this is far better than the expected drop of 5,000. Analysts exclaimed: "Companies are voting with their feet; the advance stockpiling to cope with tariffs has instead created a short-term employment boom!" Even the Federal Reserve is bewildered: they originally thought tariffs would scare off investors, but it turned out to be an "excitement drug" for the job market?
2. Wage growth "hits the brakes": Is the Federal Reserve's rate cut dream shattered?
Although the employment data is dazzling, wage growth unexpectedly "hits the brakes." The average hourly wage increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase of 3.8% is the lowest since July 2024. This has caused chaos on Wall Street—traders who originally bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut in June were suddenly doused with cold water. Goldman Sachs urgently revised its forecast: "Rate cuts may be delayed until July, or even later!"
However, this is not good news for ordinary workers. When prices are still secretly rising, but wages are stagnant, the wallets of American citizens are suffering. One Twitter user complained: "I just got my electricity bill, which is 20% more expensive than last month, but my salary only increased by 6 cents; I can't live like this!"
3. Industry disparities: Government layoffs vs. company expansions
Behind the carnival of the job market is a scene of "A Song of Ice and Fire." The federal government has laid off workers for the third consecutive month, reducing 9,000 positions in a single month, with a total of 26,000 layoffs since January. The "Department of Government Efficiency" led by Musk is crazily cutting expenses, and even Pentagon civilian employees are beginning to worry about whether they can keep their jobs tomorrow.
But private enterprises are completely opposite. ADP data shows that 167,000 jobs were added in the private sector in April, especially in the logistics and retail industries. To cope with the supply chain chaos caused by tariffs, companies have to hire like crazy. A logistics company owner revealed: "Every warehouse is scrambling for workers; the starting salary for forklift drivers has already risen to $25 per hour!"
4. Hidden crisis: How long can the "sweet period" of tariffs last?
Although the April data is impressive, economists have collectively sounded the alarm. Supply chain experts warn: "The behavior of companies stockpiling in advance is like drug addiction; it stimulates employment in the short term but will lead to demand exhaustion in the long term." JPMorgan predicts that by the end of 2025, tariffs could cause 770,000 job losses, and the boom in the transportation and warehousing industry is just a fleeting moment.
More seriously, the quality of employment is deteriorating. Although full-time positions increased by 305,000, part-time positions only rose by 56,000, and the number of long-term unemployed surged by 179,000 to 1.7 million. The unemployment rate for Black Americans is as high as 6.3%, more than double that of Asian Americans, and structural contradictions are tearing apart American society.
5. Market turbulence: U.S. stock market frenzy vs. U.S. bond market shock
After the data was released, Wall Street immediately went wild. S&P 500 futures surged by 0.85%, and Nasdaq futures skyrocketed by 0.76%. The Golden Dragon Index of Chinese concept stocks rose by 3.5%, with Global Data and Kingsoft Cloud seeing gains of over 9%. However, the U.S. bond market staged a shocking scene, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping 4 basis points to 4.27%, as investors began to reprice Federal Reserve policy.
Most dramatically, Trump tweeted three times on social media: "This is the power of America First! The Federal Reserve should cut rates immediately; our economy has no inflation!" But the market isn't buying it; CME data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in May has risen to 99.4%, and expectations for a rate cut have completely cooled down.
Conclusion: Hidden reefs beneath the surface of prosperity
The April non-farm data seems flourishing, but in reality, undercurrents are swirling. The short-term employment benefits brought by tariffs are exhausting future economic potential; weak wage growth coexists with inflation pressures, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. As one economist put it: "It's like a grand party, but everyone knows that the headache after waking up is what really matters."
Next, the market will closely monitor the CPI data in mid-May. If inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high interest rates, and Trump's tariff policy may become the last straw that breaks the camel's back for the U.S. economy. Is this "magical April" in the job market the dawn before the storm or the prelude to a tempest? Let's wait and see!