The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is slowly shrinking on one side, while the Treasury is inflating the TGA account, leaving the real cash in the market to only move sideways. When you think about it—net liquidity is down a whole trillion compared to 2021, which is not even in the same league as the 'massive monetary easing.'

Stablecoins are showing the same face: USDT barely ticks up a bit, while USDC has seen a net outflow since April 24. Over the two months, only a few billion dollars have trickled in, which is nothing compared to the hundreds of billions during last year's peak in just one month. The water level isn't rising, so altcoins naturally have no chance, and even trying to push BTC up is difficult.

Big money is simply opting to buy 'insurance'—stacking BTC, watching policies, and waiting for interest rates to genuinely drop before considering deploying cash downstream. To truly turn the page, we need to see four lights turn on together: 1) Reverse repos hitting the bottom, 2) TGA being hammered down by the Treasury, 3) Stablecoins surging by tens of billions in a month, 4) The Federal Reserve clearly ending the balance sheet reduction or cutting rates first.

Without these, don't expect altcoins to flourish.

So a more realistic approach: keep the main position in BTC or stable assets that generate cash flow, and reserve the altcoins for that 20% 'gambling money' to play around with. Once all the lights are on, then we can talk about a major rotation.