The token skyrocketed to 0.23 on its first day of listing, then retraced on the same day, followed by several trading days of steadily rising bullish candlesticks. From the one-hour chart, after the midday surge to 0.177, the bulls weakened, and the bears began to exert pressure attempting to push down, entry point at 0.155, stop-loss at 0.177, first target at 0.13, second target at 0.1.
Core fundamentals
Technical positioning:
Sui ecological liquid staking protocol, users stake SUI to obtain liquidity tokens haSUI, which can continue to participate in DeFi activities.
Innovative mechanism:
HMM (oracle pricing market maker): Optimizes liquidity through high-frequency (0.25 seconds/each) price updates, claims to convert 'impermanent loss' into profit, with measured SUI-USDC pool APY reaching 938%.
HaeVault (automated liquidity management): Simplifies LP operations, supports high-frequency rebalancing strategies.
Token economics:
Total supply of 1 billion tokens, initial circulation of 19.5% (195 million tokens), circulating market cap of $29.25 million, FDV of $150 million.
Distribution: 55% ecological incentives, 20% team/advisors (locked for 12 months), 15% investors (locked for 6 months).
Market performance:
TVL approximately $200 million, Sui ecological liquid staking track ranks second (after Suilend), accounting for 65% of total Sui staking.
Staking APY: The base staking rate for SUI is only 2.5%, but is increased to 150% through the HMM mechanism (measured data).
Prospects and risks
Short-term (Q2 2025):
Airdrop selling pressure: Airdrop accounts for 20% (200 million tokens), 5% has been released (50 million tokens), 30-day window (4.29-5.29), price under pressure.
Technical validation: Need to observe the stability of the mainnet (previous issues with transaction failures) and the large-scale usability of HMM.
Medium-term (end of 2025):
Ecological expansion: If the cross-chain bridge (compatible with Ethereum/Polygon) and re-staking protocol are implemented in Q3, TVL may hit $500 million.
Benchmark valuation: If the Sui ecosystem TVL grows to $1 billion, FDV may reach $300-500 million (benchmarking Suilend's $720 million FDV).
Long-term (2026+):
Ceiling: If it becomes the core infrastructure of the Sui ecosystem, FDV may challenge Lido's 20% valuation (approximately $2.5 billion).
Risk warnings
Token inflation: 85% of staking APY relies on token issuance, diluting value in the long term.
Competitive pressure: Suilend (TVL $596 million), NAVI (TVL $499 million) dominate the market.
Technical vulnerabilities: Oracle high-frequency updates may cause chain congestion, HaeVault's yield mechanism has not been validated.
Summary: HAEDAL is currently suppressed by airdrop and technical risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it needs to validate cross-chain narratives and ecological growth. It is recommended to participate with a light position and prioritize staking to hedge inflation risks.
