1. Main price movement:
- Daily range: Bitcoin traded over the past 12 hours within a range between $96,359.3 (low) and $97,881.8 (high), closing at $97,770.6, reflecting an increase of 1.32% during the day.
- Attempt to break resistance: The price attempted to break the $97,400 level several times, supported by strong buying momentum, but faced strong resistance at this level, leading to a slight pullback before stabilizing above $97,000.
---
2. Technical factors influencing:
- Moving averages: The price has maintained trading above the 50-day simple moving average, supporting a short-term upward trend.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI showed temporary overbought conditions at levels above 70, prompting the price to dissipate some of this overbought pressure through limited pullbacks before attempting to rise again.
- Trading volume: The trading volume during the day reached 60.31 thousand contracts, reflecting increased market activity.
---
3. Current support and resistance levels:
- Major resistance: $97,400–$97,800 (the high liquidity area that has not yet been broken).
- Strong support: $96,300–$96,500 (the dynamic support area coinciding with the 50-day moving average).
---
4. Possible scenarios based on the analysis:
- Bullish scenario:
- If the price breaks above $97,800 with a stable close above this level, it may target $98,300 (Fibonacci extension 0.618) or even $100,000 as a psychological target.
- Bearish scenario:
- If the price fails to maintain levels above $97,000, it may pull back toward $96,300 or $95,000 (technical support areas).
---
5. External influencing factors:
- Economic news: Recent statements regarding the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and inflation expectations have affected market sentiment, as rising inflation may exert temporary pressure on Bitcoin.
- Regulatory developments: A bill in Arizona allowing investment in Bitcoin may boost institutional confidence in the medium term.
---
Summary of the analysis:
Over the past 12 hours, Bitcoin has shown upward momentum with a focus on breaking the resistance at $97,400, supported by positive technical indicators such as trading above moving averages and strong cash flows. However, overbought conditions still pose a challenge that may lead to short-term corrections. Traders are advised to monitor levels of $97,800 (as key for upward movement) and $96,300 (as key for downward movement), considering external factors such as upcoming economic data.
