A second drop in GDP is not unlikely. Why would GDP rise with the significant drop that happened in American exports due to tariffs? How will it rise? Selling to whom?

🔥🔥WILL THE FED LOWER INTEREST RATES IN MAY 2025??🔥🔥

The possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering interest rates in May 2025 is considered low, based on the information available as of May 1, 2025.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled for May 6 and 7, 2025, and market expectations and official statements point to the maintenance of the current rate, which is in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Below, I present a detailed analysis:

Market Expectations:

The CME FedWatch Tool, which analyzes interest rate futures contracts, indicates a probability of only 6.5% for a cut in May 2025, with most investors betting on maintaining the rate.

The probability of a cut increases to 56% to 66% at the June 2025 meeting (June 18), reflecting greater confidence in a subsequent cut.

Some traders, however, have increased bets on more aggressive cuts (four or five cuts in 2025), but this depends on clear signs of economic slowdown or recession, which have not yet materialized.

Scenarios for an Unlikely Cut in May:
A cut in May would require unexpected economic data, such as a sharp decline in employment (e.g., unemployment rising to 5% or more) or a significant slowdown in GDP (e.g., contraction in Q2).