1. Average hourly earnings (m/m, April)
Forecast: 0.3%
Expected value (Actual): 0.4%
Justification: In an environment of persistent inflation and a strong labor market, employers are likely to continue raising wages. This may be related to competition for talent and inflationary pressure.
2. Change in non-farm employment (April)
Forecast: 228K
Expected value (Actual): 190K
Justification: Employment growth rates are decreasing, particularly due to high Fed rates and a gradual cooling of the economy. However, the labor market is still strong and not collapsing.
3. Unemployment rate (April)
Forecast: 4.2%
Expected value (Actual): 4.3%
Justification: A slight increase in unemployment is possible amid weaker employment growth, but the situation remains manageable.
📉 Impact on the cryptocurrency market
📌 If forecasts are confirmed:
Wage growth above forecast ➜ strengthening inflation expectations.
Rising unemployment and declining employment ➜ signs of economic cooling.
⚖️ This creates a mixed signal for the Fed:
Inflation is still pressing — it’s too early to lower rates.
But weakness in the labor market may prompt a rethink on a pause.
📈 Impact on the crypto market:
Short-term: high volatility.
If the Fed interprets the data as 'soft enough' — a rise in cryptocurrencies is possible.
BTC/ETH may rise 2–4% during the day if the dollar weakens.
Altcoins — particularly sensitive to liquidity inflow — may react more strongly (up to +6–8%).
📊 Overall effect: dollar weakening ➜ support for cryptocurrencies.
🔥 Outcome for the crypto market: potential for growth, especially for #BTC and #ETH .
