5.2 Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market Trends: The Bull-Bear Tug of War and Opportunity Capture Behind the European Trading Session

I. Technical Analysis of the European Trading Session: Is it a Consolidation Accumulation or a Trend Reversal? During today's European trading session, Bitcoin's price formed key support around the $96,000 level, with intra-day volatility narrowing to within 3%. The candlestick pattern shows that after breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000 in mid-April, the market maintained a combination of 'long upper shadow + solid bullish candle' for three consecutive days, indicating a dynamic balance between selling pressure above and buying support. For Ethereum, the $1,800 support level has been validated again, with the hourly RSI indicator oscillating in the overbought range of 65-70, indicating a coexistence of short-term technical correction demand and buying resilience.

Long-term Driving Factors: Policy Dividends and Technological Innovation Resonance Policy Catalysts: The U.S. Treasury's draft cryptocurrency regulatory framework is about to be released, and the market anticipates that the rollout of the 'federal cryptocurrency license' will accelerate the entry of traditional financial institutions. If the 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan' proposed by the Trump administration is implemented, it could trigger a wave of sovereign fund allocation. The negotiations to extend the transitional period for the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) have hit a deadlock, which may lead to increased compliance costs for European exchanges and short-term regional liquidity differentiation.

Operational Suggestions

Trend Following Strategy: Bitcoin sees $96,000 as the dividing line between bullish and bearish positions; if it stabilizes during the day, one can enter with a light position, targeting the $98,500-$100,000 range, with a stop loss set below $94,000.

For Ethereum, focus on the $1,850-$1,900 support zone; if it breaks above the $2,000 level, one can increase their position to chase the upward trend, with a defense line set at $1,780.

Risk Warning: The volatility in the expectations of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting may lead to unusual movements in the dollar index, and one must be cautious of macro risks transmitting to the cryptocurrency market. The outcome of the U.S. SEC's second trial regarding Ripple may trigger disputes over cryptocurrency securities classification, as short-term policy uncertainties remain.