At the beginning, I focused on watching the market every day for about 6-7 years, writing daily trading journals and summarizing. Once I learned, I still watched the market daily and recorded the trends, but I didn't trade every day. The market feel is very difficult to teach; it can only be accumulated through extensive observation over a long time.
Gradually, you can use the relationship between volume and price to predict the market, repeatedly validating your predictions, and you can usually lead the market by several days. However, you still need to watch the market. Trading is a process of forming hypotheses, presenting viewpoints, validating the market conditions, making money, paying attention to risks, and exiting profitably.
By watching the market daily and writing trading journals, over time, you'll become particularly sensitive to market movements, allowing you to seize the moment when a change occurs. When that moment arrives, it's when you decide to take large positions to buy or sell. As long as anyone isn't foolish and diligently records market conditions, they will eventually grasp the market situation because the market can validate your judgment; your correct judgment is valuable. After repeated validations over time, you'll gain confidence.
Just like a medical student learning to perform surgery, one must observe and assist in surgeries for several months to gain a rough understanding. Many details take even longer to comprehend. Most people are eager to make money but haven't seriously researched and explored the market. You must understand it before you can make money.
An expert's market feel is developed over many years, and such market feel is exceptional. Those who predict the market direction daily are typically novices. The market cannot change drastically in a day; it always progresses in a certain direction, either up or down. The shorter your prediction period, the harder it is to hold onto stocks. You must predict the market correctly at a larger level to seriously hold stocks at a smaller level.
Good traders are extremely hardworking. I spend over ten hours a day thinking about the intentions of the stock market manipulators behind the stocks and the future direction of the market. Watching the market is a fundamental skill, especially in ultra-short trading. As long as you observe long enough and predict accurately, you will naturally succeed in ultra-short trades. Otherwise, if you follow others in short-term trading, you are likely to lose money because those who excel in trading make precise market judgments before they dare to engage in smaller trades.
An important aspect of trading is to establish the correct path dependency, rather than blindly guessing. Use objective facts to speak and prove your points.
Most people trade like ordinary people performing surgeries for others, without even understanding basic disinfection, how to suture and tie knots, or how to stop bleeding. They don't even know the anatomy of the human body, the skeleton, muscles, nerves, and important blood vessel paths, yet they go into surgery. They don't know how to properly hold a scalpel, and how to perform a good surgery can lead to fatalities. Trading is the same; this is why there are false breakouts.
Because at that point, the market doesn't cooperate; you just blindly watch the stock price. When it breaks out, you chase it, ignoring the impact of sectors and the overall market. Just like now, with the economy so poor, business owners know not to blindly expand, as it can lead to losses. The same applies to trading. When the market is weak, why would you increase your position and push hard? If you don't lose, who will?
Trading is a combination of points, lines, and surfaces, all of which influence each other. Do not blindly trust one aspect. Technical analysis helps you understand a surgery, including how to disinfect, the range of disinfection, how to stop bleeding, the various methods for stopping bleeding, how to design an incision, how to mix anesthesia, how to rescue in case of an allergic reaction to anesthesia, how to coordinate the surgical assistants, what complications to pay attention to after surgery, and what patient care considerations to keep in mind, etc. These are all details. When trading, you must consider all these details as if you were performing surgery to truly understand trading.
Occasional profits mean nothing; selling drugs can also be very profitable as long as you don't get caught. If caught, it's a death sentence. The right actions may not yield short-term profits, but they will definitely generate money in the long term. Wrong actions may not lead to losses in the short term, but they will certainly incur massive losses in the long term.
Just like an amazing surgeon, he is still learning surgeries every day, doing a lot of surgery training to improve his skills, and constantly keeping up with new surgeries, from domestic to international, ultimately creating his own surgical methods; that's a true expert. No one should underestimate the greatness of time, nor should they belittle the significant blows that time can bring. There is no one-size-fits-all technology or method; only continuous strategies and methods can prevent being eliminated by the times. Trading is the same.
Many people work jobs without making a lot of money but think they can make a fortune in stock trading; this is a misconception. Remember, anything with a very low entry barrier has a very high barrier to truly learn well. Trading is a high-barrier activity; you must learn it before you can succeed. What does it mean to make occasional profits? Extend the timeframe and see if you still make money. After years of trading myself, I really shouldn't be sharing this.
I don't listen; I can't make big money in other areas, but I'm amazing at trading. How is that possible? The development of anything follows certain rules, and all games that people play have regulations. Nothing can withstand the scrutiny of time, provided one is grounded, unafraid of losses, and understands that every expert has undergone significant losses. No one becomes an unparalleled expert overnight; that is impossible because it is the essence of development.
Aggressively increasing your position means you have no way out. It's impossible to keep making the right decisions without understanding it well. If you make mistakes, you should learn and adjust, not complain all day long. A-shares are trash; I tell you, there are many people who excel in cryptocurrency trading. Why don't we talk about them? Because you all understand that those who earn money do so at the expense of those who are less knowledgeable. This is true across all industries.
