Ethereum, with a strong daily increase of 3.14%, has broken through the $1,850 mark, sparking cautious optimism for a broader recovery.
But a careful analysis of the market environment and chart structure suggests that this rebound may not be as strong as it initially appears, at least for now. As of now, the trading price of Ethereum is slightly above its 50-day moving average, which has recently turned into a support level.
Generally speaking, a sustained breakthrough of this level is a bullish signal, especially when the price is near a top consolidation. The 100-day moving average (EMA) is at $2,148, and the 200-day moving average (EMA) is at $2,469, representing the next significant test.
If these moving averages can break cleanly, it may confirm a reversal and restore mid-term bullish momentum. The issue is that the trading volume is not strong.
Although the price of Ethereum is rising, the stability of this trend is compromised due to a lack of strong buying activity. In the past, significant reversals in Ethereum were accompanied by spikes in trading volume and volatility, neither of which is currently present.
This means that if market sentiment changes or Bitcoin starts to pull back, the current trend may reverse quickly. The RSI is at 59, indicating that ETH still has some room before reaching overbought levels, but if trading volume does not increase, this may not mean much.
Although unconfirmed, this is at best speculation, but it can be seen as a quiet accumulation. Overall, despite ETH showing early signs of strength, the recovery remains fragile.
With the rise in trading volume and volatility, ETH must decisively break through the 100-day moving average for the market to fully embrace the bullish narrative.
Before this, a more accurate understanding is that this move is a cautious rebound rather than a complete trend reversal. Keep a close eye on the $2,150 area; it will determine ETH's short-term fate.
Intraday swing suggestion: $ETH Buy near 1820-1810
