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Top Interest of the Week
Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA) stands out as a lending protocol that facilitates leveraged yield farming on the BNB and Phantom chains. Recently, there was an announcement that the $ALPACA token is being delisted from the exchange, which typically leads to a decline in price as investors sell off their holdings. Contrary to expectations, the price surged by over 1,000% just before the delisting deadline, resulting in significant liquidations of short sellers in both margin and futures trading. This unexpected price movement triggered a wave of FOMO buying among traders and investors. The combination of short covering and FOMO purchases propelled the price even higher, leading to another cycle of short liquidations. The market experienced extreme volatility, prompting traders to utilize our OTC channel to secure prices and mitigate the impact of price swings.
Sam Altman's World ($WLD) has officially launched in the U.S., aiming to deploy 7,500 eye-scanning orbs in cities nationwide by year-end. Residents will be able to confirm their identity using this Orb technology and earn WLD tokens in exchange. These tokens are linked to the establishment of a World ID, which the company claims is crucial for distinguishing between genuine humans, AI bots, and digital personas. Additionally, the recent excitement in the AI sector has further fueled investor interest in this project, as it is one of the largest market-cap initiatives in the industry.
Overall Market
Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at a log scale.
In our analysis last week, we anticipated a healthy retracement following a robust breakout, which would serve as confirmation before the next upward move. Contrary to expectations, the market displayed significant upward momentum, with Bitcoin’s price surging past $97,000 after a brief consolidation within a narrow range, as highlighted in the red box on the chart.
Our trading desk noted a distinct shift in market sentiment from risk-off to risk-on, triggered by gold reaching an all-time high of $3,500 last week. Subsequently, gold experienced an approximate 8% retracement over nine days, declining to around $3,220. During this period, the U.S. stock market rallied impressively, with the S&P 500 index climbing 8.5% and the Nasdaq index advancing 10.9%. Bitcoin outperformed both, rising from $85,000 to over $97,000—a 14%+ gain. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded nearly 2%, moving from 98.3 to above 100.
The primary catalyst for this change in risk sentiment was the U.S. government’s decision to ease tariffs on various goods, signalling a more favourable trade environment. Additionally, the U.S. administration adopted a constructive negotiation stance toward China, further boosting market optimism. President Trump reinforced this confidence by unveiling a series of deregulation proposals and tax cut initiatives aimed at stimulating economic activity and supporting asset prices.
Beyond these macroeconomic developments, Bitcoin-specific factors also fueled its price appreciation. Arizona lawmakers took a significant step toward public Bitcoin adoption by passing two bills that permit direct investment of public funds into digital assets. Pending Governor Katie Hobbs’ approval, these bills would allow Arizona’s treasurer to allocate up to 10% of state-managed assets to cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the legislation establishes a Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund to oversee seized crypto assets and future appropriations, incorporating requirements for on-chain auditability and standardized risk management protocols.
Another factor contributing to bullish global market sentiment is the increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Following the release of underwhelming private sector job growth data on Wednesday, markets initially dipped but swiftly recovered and pushed higher. Traders are now anticipating four 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025, interpreting the weak labour market figures as a potential trigger for monetary easing. Such a policy shift aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stabilize prices, particularly if economic growth shows signs of faltering.
In summary, the market outlook has turned decidedly bullish, driven by the confluence of factors outlined above. Our desk maintains its stance from last week: we expect a healthy retracement to the $90,000–$91,000 range, potentially dipping to $88,000, before Bitcoin challenges the pivotal $100,000 threshold.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (25-04-24)
The initial jobless claims in the United States continue to be low, with a report of 222,000 last week, consistent with market predictions.
Durable goods orders in the US experienced a month-over-month increase of 9.2% in March, significantly surpassing the anticipated 2.1%.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow has revised its projection for a 2.5% contraction in the first quarter of 2025, which is a decline from the earlier estimate of 2.2%.
On Monday (25-04-28)
The Liberal Party, led by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, has secured victory in the Canadian federal election and will establish a minority government.
On Tuesday (25-04-29)
In April, US consumer confidence, as measured by the CB index, declined to 86.0, falling short of the anticipated 87.7 and March's figure of 93.9. This decline reflects a growing pessimism among US consumers following the tariffs implemented by the US government.
JOLTS job openings decreased to 7.192 million in March, which was below the expected 7.490 million.
On Wednesday (25-04-30)
In the first quarter, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced an annual growth of 2.4%, marginally exceeding the anticipated rate of 2.3%.
China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell below the neutral threshold, registering at 49.0 in April, which is lower than the expected figure of 49.7.
Germany's CPI recorded an annual increase of 2.1% in April, slightly surpassing the forecasted 2.0%. Furthermore, Germany's GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% in the first quarter, which is consistent with market predictions.
In April, the US ADP nonfarm employment data indicated that private sector payrolls increased by merely 62,000, marking the lowest rise since July 2024 and significantly falling short of the anticipated 114,000 increase.
The US PCE price index recorded a 2.3% year-over-year growth in March, a decrease from 2.7% in February, while the core PCE price index reflected a 2.6% annual growth during the same timeframe, down from 3.0% in February.
The US market experienced a rapid decline following unsatisfactory job growth in the private sector, with diminished focus on the PCE price index due to uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Nevertheless, the market recovered all its losses and closed positively, as it now anticipates a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end. The price of gold fell to $3,267, reflecting a 6.7% decrease from its peak of $3,500 marked nine days ago. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remained stable within a narrow range of approximately $93,000 to $94,000.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
Last week, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated resilience, with Bitcoin (BTC) regaining the significant $95,000 threshold and altcoins surpassing BTC in performance. Additionally, there was a noticeable shift in global risk appetite, evidenced by declining gold prices and a rise in riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
In the Fan Token market, a surge in trading activity resulted in a 59.5% increase in trading volume, largely fueled by increased interest in the Juventus Fan Token ($JUV).
The DeFi sector experienced a 49.3% rise in trading volume, attributed to the strong performance of DeFi projects, with Alpaca Finance ($ALPACA) and LeverFi ($LEVER) being the primary drivers of this growth.
Furthermore, the Launchpool sector saw a 39.9% increase in trading volume, predominantly due to robust demand for Sui ($SUI).
Why trade OTC?
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.
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