"SUI's Counterattack Signal Appears! How to Grasp the Opportunities of ETF Benefits + Technical Oversold Rebound?"
Summary
SUI's current price is $3.5441, in the oversold area of the lower Bollinger Band, with a 24-hour volume-price divergence indicating short-term rebound momentum. It is recommended to try a small long position near 3.50, with a stop loss at 3.46 and a target of 3.78, yielding a risk-reward ratio of 5:1. Be cautious of liquidity risks caused by the continuous decline in contract open interest.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position: Price is above the lower band at 3.463 (25.3% percentile), RSI 32.2 is close to the oversold threshold
• MA200 Position: Current price is above 3.4837 (deviation +1.73%), breaking through the 200-hour line forming weak support
• Holding Cost: Current price deviates +5.22% from the average holding cost of 3.368, weakening profit-taking pressure
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: 24-hour volume increased by 33.97% but the price only rose by 0.73%, indicating buying support
• Open Interest Trend: 1-hour open interest decreased by 1.38% along with a price drop of 0.37%, showing short positions dominating the liquidation
• Smart Money Long-Short Ratio: Long-short ratio of 1.2389 (24 hours +5.55%) indicates a bullish layout by the main force
• Market News: 21Shares' application for a spot ETF constitutes a medium-term positive, but attention is needed on the SEC's approval progress
3. Key Support and Resistance:
• Support Level: 3.463 (Bollinger lower band + dense spot transaction area)
• Resistance Level: 3.782 (Bollinger upper band) + 3.800 (psychological level)
Market Cycle Analysis
1. Current Cycle: In the final phase of a decline, undergoing a consolidation bottoming stage, with 4-hour MACD showing a bottom divergence, and 8-hour open interest increasing by 4.28% confirming fund inflow
Trading Strategy
1. Specific Levels:
• Entry: 3.50 (previous low support area + whole number level)
• Stop Loss: 3.46 (breaking below the Bollinger lower band by 2%)
• Target: 3.78 (Bollinger upper band + volume peak area)
• Risk-reward Ratio: 5:1 (0.28/0.04)
2. Risk Warning:
• Funding rate of 0.01% indicates accumulation of leverage risk
• Total contract open interest decreased by 82.59%, weakening trend continuity
• Operating Suggestions: Use ≤2% position, wait for volume confirmation before increasing position after breaking 3.55
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