We are now at a critical point in global economic history. Protectionist tendencies have returned strongly, and trade tensions between major capitals are shaking markets and opening the door to a reformation of the global monetary system amidst all this, digital currencies have entered the fray.
The global monetary system faces an existential challenge.
Protectionist policies.
The US and China imposed new tariffs on each other's goods, reducing trade volume and harming investor confidence. In the first quarter of 2025, US GDP declined by 0.3% year-on-year for the first time since 2022, due to tariff taxes on imports.
In China, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has reached its lowest level since December 2023 due to sharp changes in global trade.
Erosion of trust in the dollar.
The Federal Reserve printed massive amounts of money in the past two years, which increased supply and reduced currency value. According to the IMF, countries are looking for strong alternatives like the yuan, gold, or even central digital currencies.
Division of global payment chains.
There is a constructive attempt for a parallel system led by Asia, China, and Russia, aiming for global liquidity separate from the traditional SWIFT network. This threatens the stability of the current system and opens the door to recurring financial shocks instead of a sudden collapse.
An expected outcome is the gradual erosion of the old monetary system through waves of crises and successive financial shocks until the new model crystallizes.
Will digital currencies fall or endure?
Partial or complete collapse.
High volatility.
Any negative news or government statement can cause Bitcoin to drop 6.2 in one day, as happened in the first week of February 2025 when U.S. tariffs raised risks for investors and caused the currency to drop to its lowest level in 3 weeks.
Regulatory pressure.
Governments may restrict trading or impose strict regulations if they feel Bitcoin threatens their monetary sovereignty. Even Charles Schwab announced he is preparing to launch instant trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum within 12 months but warned of high risks and regulatory controls.
Lack of general acceptance.
Most economies still do not use crypto as a primary means of payment; any loss of confidence will drive people back to traditional currencies like the dollar or gold.
The next digital haven.
Bitcoin is digital gold with a fixed cap of 21 million units, and many investors consider it a store of value in times of crisis.
Increasing institutional adoption.
Large banks and corporations are placing a small percentage of their portfolios in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, which increases market credibility.
Emergence of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
94% of central banks around the world are currently exploring the idea of CBDC, according to a survey by the World Bank for the BIS.
Digital currencies are exposed to strong winds, but powerful platforms, institutional adoption, and true scarcity may give them resilience.
Currencies that will endure in tough scenarios.
Bitcoin BTC leads with a fixed cap and is described as digital gold, a testament to its status as a store of value.
Ethereum ETH is not just a currency; it is an operating system for smart contracts, DeFi, and NFTs. Charles Schwab is also preparing to list Ethereum on its platform soon.
Solana SOL is an infrastructure supporting thousands of transactions per second at negligible costs, ideal for mass applications and games.
Chainlink LINK is a bridge to blockchain with real-world data, securing oracles for data feeding DeFi contracts worth tens of billions of dollars.
VeChain VET has real applications in supply chains with global companies like BMW and Walmart China, providing tracking and quality control solutions.
USDC is a stablecoin backed by real reserves and a fast liquidity tool during crises, supported by Circle and major payment companies.
An important point: no one is 100% guaranteed, but those backed by strong infrastructure and real use cases have better chances.
Currencies that are likely to disappear.
Terra/LUNA's model of automated stability failed, causing the currency to lose its peg to the dollar and collapse completely. An academic study describes this as the collapse of an artificial heart.
BitConnect became infamous for being a Ponzi scheme, and its institution was accused of siphoning investor funds in a scam and faced a federal indictment for $2.4 billion.
Fashion projects without purpose like SafeMoon are just marketing campaigns that will disappear with the first sharp downturn.
Excessive HARD FORKS like Bitcoin Cash/SV replicate Bitcoin without real innovation or strong institutional support; their chances are slim.
For managing a portfolio in the current environment.
Asset diversification involves a distribution between cash (dollar/euro), precious metals, and a strong digital currency, which reduces risks and provides liquidity when necessary. With a fundamental assessment of technology, only invest in projects backed by a professional institutional team with real use cases and regular updates. Stay updated on central bank decisions regarding CBDCs; if they enter the field, it will be a positive indicator for the technology's spread. You must determine an exit point at an acceptable loss level and execute it before the storm peaks, reviewing your portfolio every 3-6 months and adjusting ratios based on new data and tensions.
Gold is the traditional store of value.
Scarcity and a long history.
Gold has been a safe and stable haven of value for thousands of years, proving its role as a safe haven during crises. When money supply increases due to quantitative easing, the price of gold rises. In 2025, the First Eagle Gold Fund achieved gains due to geopolitical tensions and inflation, outperforming most markets. Adding bullion or gold-backed ETFs reduces the overall volatility of the portfolio since gold's correlation with traditional markets is often weak or negative, and the global gold market is vast and easily liquefiable at any time, either through direct sales or asset-backed trading funds.
Gold is an excellent strategic complement for hedging against inflation risks and geopolitical disruptions, enhancing portfolio strength when combined with digital and traditional assets.
We are facing a reshaping of the global financial system. The old system is gradually eroding and will transition away, while the digital system is sifting through to those that deserve to endure. Gold operates as a traditional shield in the background. Our opportunity is to be gatekeepers of change, investing wisely and balancing between digital and traditional assets, managing our risks intelligently instead of being spectators waiting for disasters.
And this is just an analysis and opinion, not financial advice 😊👻.
#CBDC #NFTs #CBDCs #BTCRebound # #Bitcoin
