Update on my views about the May market:

1. Today, the US PCE data looks much better, and market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising.

2. Additionally, Bitcoin has rebounded from 74,000 to 94,000, and there has been an increase in net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs, which indicates that market sentiment is slowly shifting from pessimistic to optimistic.

3. The US dollar index is gradually declining, and market funds will slowly flow back into risk assets.

The above three points seem very positive, and I was optimistic last month that Bitcoin would gradually recover.

However, this time it surged too quickly; the market clearly has not yet cut interest rates, but the rebound has exceeded expectations, so I consider the current price to have already reflected some of this.

To conclude:

I believe there can still be further increases, but the room for growth is not large.

—— High probability of "pulling up before crashing."

Therefore, as we approach mid-May, I will keep the long-term spot positions unchanged, but will gradually reduce the short-term positions that were bought at lower levels.

Returning to my analysis of cryptocurrency exchanges,

Frequent entry of altcoins and celebrities from outside the industry are warning signs.

The exhaustion of liquidity won't immediately impact the market, but I feel it has already started to take effect slowly, similar to the situation with Trump coins in mid-January, which caused a significant market crash in early February.

In simple terms, the risks are starting to surface slowly.

Especially as we get closer to June, observing the actions of the US will introduce significant uncertainties.$BTC