U.S. trade deficit
The fight against the trade balance deficit has led to the deficit reaching an all-time high – in March, it was 162 billion vs 92.7 billion in March 2024, 82.6 billion in March 2023, and 120.7 billion in March 2022 (previously the record deficit for March and any month overall). From 2010 to 2019, the average deficit was 62.5 billion in March.
The trade balance deficit began to expand beyond 100 billion per month on a three-month moving average by September 2024 and continued to grow. By December 2024, the deficit reached 122.1 billion – this was already an all-time high, surpassing the fantastic figures of the record deficit in 2022.
Under Trump, the deficit was 154.6 billion in January, 147.8 billion in February, and now 162 billion in March, averaging nearly 155 billion per month since the beginning of 2025. This is simply incredible! 55% higher than under sleepy Biden in 2024 and 75% higher than in 2023.
What is behind such a staggering increase in the trade balance deficit? A preemptive increase in imports due to expectations of tariff chaos from Trump and his administration.
Imports began to accelerate anomalously as soon as the outlines of Trump's new economic policy became clear (starting January 2025), when the annual growth rate of imports was 26.1%, in February – 22.5%, and in March – 30.8% year-on-year.
The current volume of imports is 342 billion per month, which is close to the theoretical limit (the throughput capacity of trade ports and the number of available container ships). Businesses are chartering everything that can be chartered.
The load on trade gateways has increased by a third from 2013-2024 and by about 60-70% from 2018-2019, but about 15-20% of the increase is the effect of price growth over 6-7 years.
The largest increase in imports is recorded in consumer goods – 55.5% year-on-year, followed by industrial goods – 37.8% year-on-year, and capital goods – 22.2% year-on-year. Mainly, businesses and the population are stocking up on durable goods.
Businesses are working to stock up, understanding that nothing good is expected in the next four years, but trying to buy a little time, probably 1-3 months of additional inventory for reconfiguring trade flows.
At the same time, exports are virtually not growing - 170-180 billion per month, which is comparable to export volumes in 2023-2024 with a growth of about 3-4% per year in nominal terms.
It is currently difficult to assess the short-term dynamics in foreign trade, as the configuration of trade tariffs is still unclear.
With high probability, imports will remain at a very high level for the next three months, even despite the 10% tariffs for most countries, as businesses, anticipating the madness of the Trump administration, will hedge risks through active accumulation of inventory, the same goes for the population.
Exports will not grow, but will tend to decline mainly due to direct or hidden boycotts of American products, which is very pronounced in Canada, Europe, and China.
Trade with China is effectively halted, and a decrease in volumes by 3-4 times is to be expected.
In the next three months, the trade deficit could be in the range of 130-170 billion per month, which is twice the norm – that's how skilled the traders are in the U.S.))
Regarding the outlook for foreign trade in the second half of 2025, nothing is known yet, as there are no parameters for trade policy. Everything is changing very quickly in this madhouse.