Business cycle indicators help us understand where the economy might be headed — and what that means for markets like Bitcoin.
🔹 Some indicators give early warnings — 6 to 9 months before markets react. One of these is the Lead Business Cycle Index. It usually moves before the ISM PMI, which shows us the current state of the economy.
🔹 The ISM PMI is closely linked to the stock market and Bitcoin. If it’s above 50, the economy is growing. If it’s below 50, things are slowing down. The latest number was 49 — not great, but not a disaster.
📉 The drop is mostly because manufacturers are under pressure — partly due to trade tariffs. But there’s a silver lining...
🔹 Copper, a key material used in factories and tech, is starting to bounce back. That’s a good sign that things might be getting better in the production world.
⚙️ There’s also the Financial Conditions Index from Global Macro Investor. We don’t know exactly how it’s made, but it has a strong track record of showing the overall health of financial markets.
📌 Bottom line: Even with some short-term worries, the big picture suggests we could see a recovery soon. That’s especially good news for assets like Bitcoin, which benefit when the global economy improves. $BTC
