The outlook for Friday's non-farm data. Yesterday's GDP was a false alarm; the market has realized that the U.S. economy still has enough resilience in the first quarter, but whether this resilience is due to tariffs is still uncertain. We cannot rule out the expansion of domestic demand brought about by tariffs. The unemployment rate reported in April rose from 4% to 4.2%, including the economic downturn, which has been personally indicated by Powell and the Federal Reserve.

This is also the reason why everyone is concerned about the first quarter GDP. As for whether the economy can continue to maintain resilience in the second quarter, it is hard to say whether at least domestic demand can continue to be guaranteed. The monthly unemployment rate is a key indicator; if the unemployment rate increases, it will indeed increase the frequency of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but it also indicates that the economic trajectory will worsen.

In Friday's data, the market expectations are still good, with the unemployment rate and previous value both at 4.2%. However, I personally feel that the unemployment rate may rise, possibly to 4.3% or 4.4%. Of course, my personal feeling may not be accurate. If the unemployment rate rises, it will depend on whether it is a "loss of joy" or a "loss of affairs".

Moreover, yesterday's PCE data has already indicated that the wage growth of the public is slowing down, but spending continues to increase.

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