From the beginning, I shared that after Elliot there is a correction (A,B,C)
In the larger timeframe, we are in the third phase of the Elliot wave, and this structure is broken down again into smaller parts which is the Elliot wave we experienced from 74k to 95k, with the ATH remaining at 108k+
currently in ABC correction after 95k, so still in corrective abc correcting the rise (so down, and it can also correct the drop to rise).
In the internal abc correction wave, the small wave a has been completed for 3 days, and the small wave b yesterday should have been completed if following the normal structure, its peak at 95500+ and at the time of this post, it should have been at the beginning of the small wave C that is declining and already in the second small subwave c. This is in a smaller (internal) structure if broken down:
wave C will decline to the target and the target is at 91k-90k if it overshoots it can break 89k. The second small subwave should finish within 7 hours.
But unexpectedly it rose to become an expanded flat, I also apologize because the decline did not occur according to the normal structure and normal duration because no matter what, this is out of my control, this is the wild crypto market. Anything can happen here.
In the above structure, we should be in the second corrective wave of the subwave c2 which is a normal retrace because the subwave c1 in the small wave c has started from the drop of B ending at 92910.
The second small c wave then retraces or rises, then wave c third deeply corrects beyond the previous low (lower than 92800). The previous target area if the small c wave is completed: 88-90k. (This is if normal) without expanded flat (now happening) where the rule is that wave B MAY EXCEED the high of the elliot peak.
This has been confirmed through the sharp drop that I predicted yesterday would touch 92k and happened exactly 4 hours later, because that is a signal indicating we are indeed in the downward corrective wave impulsively after 3-4 upward waves are completed (the waves that caused us to stay at 95-92k continuously). That is why I dare to share that there will be a drop. Because the peak has been created. And because the first subwave c pattern has just been created and I expect the second subwave to occur according to the structure.
However, what happened today was that the wave that was considered finished (the peak at 95500+) instead rose beyond normal limits and became an expanded flat, and we should be in the second downward subwave (if following normal structure), a normal retrace should not exceed 95200+ which is the final peak before dropping to 92900).
However, unexpectedly the retrace even exceeded the initial peak of the impulsive Elliot which is 95758. Hahaha. Normally, after subwave 1&2 of C is created, a significant drop should occur in subwave 3. But subwave 2 instead performed an expanded flat that changed the structure back to a wave that can surpass the beginning of Elliot. So that is still part of wave b not finished and deceiving the market & traders. According to the rules, it is indeed not wrong & still valid. This is called an expanded flat structure within the internal abc correction wave. Where wave B rises more than the previous small wave a.
Finally, after re-confirmation due to this incident, I confirm that the market is indeed in an expanded flat phase even though it remains in the same structure. The market has returned to the retrace wave and is completing the expanded peak of the small wave B. (97424) is a temporary peak until we get confirmation; this is due to sudden NEWS at a time when it should have dropped sharply.
This is usually a trap to deceive traders that there seems to be an immediate trend reversal and this overshoot aims to take liquidity and this DOES NOT invalidate the structure I hold. Indeed we should experience a decline, but it could also be that B is not the peak and expansion?
Try to see for yourself where we are?
The downward structure I hold remains VALID according to its rules.
Just after the peak is created, the impulsive decline can be re-confirmed. However, the target may change because peak B is higher.
I still firmly believe in what I have analyzed for days behind the scenes, with layered confirmation. Everything aligns with the pattern rules where Wave C will drop forming 5 subwaves until the small wave C in the large ABC correction wave is complete. It looks similar to this.
The decline can happen but what will happen here is that it will take more time because it turns out the beginning of the downward corrective impulse wave C is just about to start.
I'm just calm because I'm not a future trader and a few weeks ago the market was like this, it should have dropped but was pumped by Trump. But a week later it still 'DROPPED' after the market understood that this was just pump news and BTC did what it was supposed to do according to its pattern.
Of course, because of what just happened, it requires a recalculation in the analysis of the desired fall target and its duration. Bitcoin should indeed be in a consolidation phase first.
If Bitcoin drops directly to 95-94k after this peak, then we can confirm we are already in the first downward impulse subwave.
The first downward impulse (1) is the decline after breaking 97400+ which is the fall to 95-94k, after this subwave is completed, then the second impulse (2) or subwave 2 is to rise back up not exceeding the peak (temporary 97424) and we can expect a sharp drop after the second upward retrace impulse is completed, which is the third impulse wave (subwave 3) which is usually the strongest and sharpest in decline.
The fourth subwave (4) of the impulse wave is a small retrace from the fall of the third impulse, and the fifth impulse wave decline signifies the completion of the downward impulse wave.
If the impulsive subwave 3 is not sharp then the impulsive subwave (5) will complete the downward target with a longer duration (expected completion time 4-7 days) in a very bullish market.
In total, there will be 5 downward impulses in the lower timeframe, or 5 subwaves of the wave if you want to wait, it could take days to complete to reach the fall target but still with the aim of correcting the rise, not correcting the drop to rise and one subwave of the 5 impulses (1,2,3,4,5) can finish in 1/2 - 3/4 trading days. $BTC
Let's just wait for the peak to be at what number (temporarily around 97424) and if it drops directly to 95-94k area that means it is a signal entering the downward impulse because that was just a pump due to news.
But if there is another rise after the first correction from the peak, and the number exceeds the peak number (expanded again) then that has violated the structural rules in the wave which should be the impulsive decline until the end of subwave 5 (end of small wave C) in the corrective abc structure, and the current structure could become INVALID. And maybe at that point I will need to reanalyze.
From the current condition, Bitcoin's high should not exceed this number:
Fib ratio, from the elliot peak, in the EXPANDED FLAT structure:
Wave B Price
110% A2.958 × 10% = 295.8
95.758 + 295.8 = 96.054
123.6% A2.958 × 23.6% = 698.195.758 + 698.1 = 96.456
138.2% A2.958 × 38.2% = 1.130.595.758 + 1.130.5 = 96.889
161.8% A2.958 × 61.8% = 1.827.895.758 + 1.827.8 = 97.585 (extreme limit) and we are almost breaking this limit.
because that means Bitcoin could break this high (different correction structure) or breach 100k first before starting to drop to wave C, (Wave B is not finished) That's why we need to re-confirm, we need to see how it moves in this week.
For the bigger picture, I remain bullish, and expect a NEW ATH soon, bought everything already in the last drop (74k).
the mini bull run is a hint that we should experience the real bull run soon, so if necessary a better entry, better wait for the dips.
