Bitcoin is warming up: Three scenarios that could shape the next rally

“As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the 'start' rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months:

1. Optimistic (Bull)

If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it - the NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse and the price could reach $150-175K, repeating the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.

2. Base Case (Consolidation)

If the Ratio remains in the 0.8-1.0 range, the market will stay in a wide corridor of $90-110K: participants maintain positions but don't increase exposure.

3. Pessimistic (Correction)

If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders will begin to take profits, and the price could correct to $70-85K. Considering that a correction has already occurred, the first two scenarios are more likely.” – By @AxelAdlerJr