The Survival Rules of Contracts: Unveiling the Three Top Logics of Professional Traders!
Five years ago, I saw a set of bloody data in the risk control backend of an exchange: 95% of contract liquidation orders died from three fatal illusions. Those who can consistently profit, the top 3% of traders, have long poured the soup of going with the trend down the drain, instead using a set of counterintuitive mathematical models to dissect the market.
Leverage is a double-edged sword, but experts know how to sharpen it into a scalpel. When Asian main players use a 15-minute false breakout to trap retail investors at three in the morning, professional traders are using 30x leverage to build positions lightning-fast; this ambush usually lasts only 7-12 minutes. Once they notice a 200% surge in 15-minute trading volume, they immediately reduce leverage to 5x to lock in profits, just like a cheetah switching to a defensive stance after catching its prey by the throat. Even more ruthless is opening a 20% position to hedge in the 4-hour RSI overbought zone; a certain private equity firm in Shenzhen used this tactic to harvest a 470% return during the LUNA crash last year.
The time dimension hides the harvesting code of the big players. The 15-minute KDJ golden cross at three in the morning Beijing time is a classic baiting trap, while during the European trading session, when the 4-hour EMA yellow line resonates with the daily Bollinger Bands' middle line, there is an 87% probability of a unilateral market breakout. In 2023, there were 13 instances where ETH's swing gains were captured in advance by this model, much like using a CT scan to track the cash flow of the big players.
Capital management is the true battleground. Top traders have turned the Kelly formula into a bloodthirsty machine: the first bet only dares to stake 0.3% of total capital, and if a loss of 2% occurs, they immediately detach and seek survival. When floating profits exceed the previous high by 5%, they use 30% of the profits to add positions, creating a snowball effect. The most counterintuitive operation is to withdraw 70% of a 200% paper profit immediately to a cold wallet; a certain live trading champion relied on this mechanism to achieve a 40-fold return in three months.
I am preparing and listing some cryptocurrencies suitable for bottom fishing as a plan to double positions; fighting alone is not as good as overcoming difficulties together, those who understand, come along.