The 5-day level of Bitcoin is about to form a major cycle trend!

Will it break directly or pull back to let us get on board!

The dark ages of March are meeting the dawn of April, with today's monthly closing price above 94,000, forming a large bullish candle, just a step away from the 100,000 USD mark.

Bitcoin has recently been consolidating in the range of 93,000 to 95,000, and the total market capitalization has returned to the 3 trillion mark. The capital market has also started to re-enter around 80,000, and the Bitcoin ETF market has seen a general rebound of about 20%.

In terms of technical patterns, the king of indicators, MACD, has formed a return to the bullish territory at the daily level. The 2-day line is slowly entering the bullish area, while the 3-day line's fast line has just touched the zero axis, but the slow line has not yet formed. The 5-day line is currently choosing to form a bullish crossover trend above.

What has always been a concern is whether the 3-day line and the 5-day line will be affected by various data announcements at the beginning of the month, leading to a failure to form a bullish arrangement. After all, the current rebound range of Bitcoin is still a densely populated area around 96,500 to 97,500, and the chips from January and February have not yet broken even. The Trump tariff war has not completely eliminated market panic, and the recent announcement of the yen interest rate decision met expectations.

Therefore, the non-farm payroll data to be announced tomorrow is likely to be favorable, with a previous value of 22.8 and an expectation of 12.9. However, the focus should still be on market prices; if it cannot effectively break through the 95,000 mark, there is still a possibility of pulling back to around 90,000.

Additionally, on the 8th, there is also the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is basically expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. The market has also digested the clear bearish sentiment in advance; the concern is that favorable news may lead to a false breakthrough of 95,000 followed by a pullback, as the market is often counterintuitive.

Especially with the current market remaining high and extremely bullish sentiment, there has been a significant accumulation of long and short data in the 93,000 to 95,000 range. To break the shorts in this area, Bitcoin's price would need to pull back to around 103,000 to 108,000, which requires massive buying power, while harvesting the bullish market only requires selling the chips on hand. Coupled with negative news, the price can quickly be suppressed to 90,000 or even 88,000.

So the coming week is bound to be tumultuous. I choose to continue watching from the sidelines, waiting for the market's final decision. Short-term operations during the day can avoid losses for both bulls and bears; being slick in this market is all that is needed.