The current trend of $BTC shows strong consolidation characteristics, with the price oscillating in the range of $92,700 to $95,700 for 8 days, and technical indicators suggest that breakout momentum is building.
From on-chain data observation, the exchange reserves remain low (2.3 million) while the stablecoin premium rate reaches 3%, indicating that off-market funds are poised to enter the market.
If it breaks through the key resistance level of $95,000, it may quickly surge towards the $100,000 mark, or even challenge the institutional forecast target of $150,000.
However, caution is needed regarding the significant risk event of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 8. The latest data shows that the U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, and the ADP employment increase was only 62,000, indicating clear signs of an economic hard landing. Although the market bets on four rate cuts within the year, the probability of maintaining the interest rate in the May meeting is as high as 89%.
If Powell sends a hawkish signal, it may trigger concentrated programmed selling, leading to a single-day drop of 10%-15% for Bitcoin. Special attention should be paid to the selling pressure from trapped positions above $95,000, where the concentration of chips is relatively high.
If it stabilizes above $96,000 with increased volume, it can be a favorable time to position. Before May 7, reduce positions to 50%, keeping enough cash to respond to volatility.
In October 2024, Bitcoin similarly experienced three false breakouts before surging 40% after a macro shift.
The current market is at a critical point of greed and fear, and it is advisable to maintain a 60% spot position and use 20% of funds for range-based operations.
Sudden drops in a bull market are often the best opportunities to increase positions, provided that one ensures not to be forced out during a crash.
With interest rate cuts approaching, I plan to publicly position for a meme coin, expecting a tenfold increase in the short term and a hundredfold in the long term. With the same market conditions, top strategies—join in to witness everything.
