Hello everyone, I am Qianli Ge! Today let's talk about the potential impact of tomorrow's non-farm data on the cryptocurrency market!

The United States will release the non-farm employment data for April tomorrow, May 2. The market generally expects an increase of 135,000 jobs (previous value 228,000). If the data falls short of expectations, it may intensify concerns about an economic recession and increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, thereby driving up risk assets like Bitcoin. Institutions such as Standard Chartered believe that easing liquidity may become a catalyst for Bitcoin's short-term rise.

Potential Impact: If the data is weak, Bitcoin may break through the current consolidation range ($94,000-$95,000) and test higher resistance levels (such as $96,000); if the data is strong, short-term pullback risk increases.

Subsequent Reactions to the U.S. Q1 GDP Data

Previously released GDP data has shown economic contraction (JP Morgan forecasts -1.75%), and concerns about economic pressure may continue to affect investor sentiment, driving funds towards safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

Support and Resistance Levels

Short-term Support: $92,403 (lower edge of the medium to long-term trend channel) and $91,000 (psychological support level). If it breaks down, it may test the range of $88,000-$90,000.

Resistance levels: $96,000 and $98,000 (previous highs). If it breaks through $96,000, it may accelerate the push towards $100,000.

Technical Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The current RSI value is around 55-68, close to the overbought area but not breaking the critical value, indicating that there is still room for short-term rises, but caution is needed for pullback risks.

Moving Average System: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are forming a 'Golden Cross', indicating a bullish medium-term trend, but short-term volatility needs to be monitored.

Market Sentiment and Fund Flows

It is worth noting that institutions like MicroStrategy have been continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings recently (average price around $92,737), coupled with continuous inflows of spot ETF funds (net inflow of $170 million on the 8th), which strengthens market confidence.

Retail Participation: Wallet addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC have recently increased by 15%, indicating a resurgence of retail investor interest, which may support short-term buying.

Risk Factors

Geopolitical and Policy Uncertainty

The tariff policy of the Trump administration (announced on April 2) has caused market volatility. If trade frictions escalate, it may create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Technical Pullback Risk: The current price is close to historical highs. If it fails to break through key resistance levels, profit-taking may trigger a price drop below $90,000.

Comprehensive Forecast

May 1: Influenced by expectations for non-farm data, the market may maintain narrow fluctuations (between $94,000 and $96,000), with trading volume gradually increasing. If the RSI breaks through 70, caution is needed for overbought pullbacks.

May 2: After the non-farm data is released, if the data is weak, Bitcoin may quickly rise and test $98,000; if the data is strong, it may temporarily pull back to the support level of $92,000.

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