MARKET OVERVIEW
INIT/USDT is in a strong downtrend with a decrease of -15.77% in the last 24 hours. The current price is trading around $0.7272, below important moving averages, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant.
1. 24h price volatility
- 24h high: $0.8674
- 24h low: $0.7120
- Trading volume: 293.69M INIT (~227.52M USDT)
2. Key price levels
- Short-term support: $0.7274 (EMA7) → $0.7120 (24h low) → $0.6534 (strong historical support)
- Short-term resistance: $0.7418 (EMA25) → $0.7621 (EMA99) → $0.8303 (medium supply zone)
II. DETAILED TECHNICAL INDICATOR ANALYSIS
#1. Trend (EMA)
- EMA7 (0.7305) < EMA25 (0.7326) < EMA99 (0.7565) → Clear medium-term downtrend
- Price is retesting EMA7, if broken will target $0.7120
- If it surpasses EMA25 ($0.7418), consider the possibility of reversal
2. Momentum (RSI)
- RSI(6): 34.5 – 41.4 (oversold zone but no bullish divergence yet)
- RSI(12) & RSI(24) ~44 (neutral, no strong buy signal yet)
Prediction: Continue to decline or sideways before recovering
3. Price momentum (MACD):
- DIF (-0.0028) < DEA (0.0006)→ Downtrend
- Negative MACD Histogram (-0.0034) but narrowing → Slowing down the decline
→ Possible bullish divergence if price declines slower
4. Volume (Volume & OBV)
- Current volume (1.6M – 18.8M) lower than MA5 (40M) → Lack of buying power
- Negative OBV (-34M) → Selling pressure is dominant
III. SHORT-TERM FUTURE TRADING STRATEGY
1. SHORT strategy (Short selling)
✅ Entry point:
- $0.7300 – $0.7350 (retesting EMA7 or minor resistance)
🛑 Stop-loss: $0.7450 (above EMA25)
🎯 Take profit target:
- $0.7120 (24h low) → Probability of reaching 70%
- $0.6534 (strong support) → Probability of reaching 45%
📉 Risk/Reward: 1:2.5
2. LONG strategy (Buy the dip - Wait for reversal signal)
✅ Entry point: $0.7120 (strong support) or when RSI(6) < 30 + MACD bullish divergence
🛑 Stop-loss: $0.6950 (below the nearest low)
🎯 Take profit target:
- 0.7418 (EMA25) → Probability of reaching 60%
- $0.7621 (EMA99) → Probability of reaching 35%
📈 Risk/Reward: 1:3
IV. PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS & RISK WARNING
- Probability of successful SHORT: 65-70%
- Probability of successful LONG: 50-55%
⚠️ Risks to note:
1. If price breaks $0.7450, the trend may reverse upwards.
2. Low volume may lead to sudden strong volatility.
3. Oversold RSI may trigger a short-term technical recovery.
V. CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION
- Prioritize SHORT in the short term with target $0.7120
- Wait for a reversal signal to enter LONG if price holds above $0.7120.
- Tight capital management, always use stop-loss to avoid risk.
🔎 Follow up more:
- Breakout volume when price approaches $0.7120 or $0.7450.
- RSI/MACD divergence to confirm reversal.
👉 Update orders according to actual market developments!
