Multiple institutions have a consistent expectation regarding the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, generally believing that this meeting will maintain the policy unchanged, but there are differences regarding the subsequent rate hike path and economic outlook:

- Adjustments in economic and inflation expectations: Institutions such as Mitsubishi UFJ and Crédit Agricole expect that the Bank of Japan may lower its economic growth and core inflation forecasts for this year, particularly focusing on the yen's appreciation and the decline in oil prices, which may suppress inflation.

- Timing of rate hikes:

- Most institutions have postponed their rate hike expectations: Bank of America, ANZ, and others have pushed the next rate hike timeline from mid-year to year-end (for instance, ANZ has postponed it to October); Citigroup and S&P believe there will be no rate hike this year.

- A Reuters survey shows that 84% of economists believe that the interest rate will remain at 0.50% before the end of June, and 52% expect a potential rate hike in the third quarter.

- Policy dilemmas and risk focus:

- External uncertainties such as Trump’s policies and trade tariffs (e.g., auto tariffs), combined with the balancing act of rising domestic inflation and wage growth, have become key contradictions in policy-making.

- IG Group, Continuum Economics, and others point out that the central bank may release a cautious tone during the press conference, emphasizing the need to observe whether wage growth can continue to exceed inflation to support confidence in policy normalization.

- Yen trend correlation: Some institutions (e.g., Mitsubishi UFJ) believe that even if the central bank is cautious about rate hikes, there is still room for the yen to appreciate, and attention should be paid to whether it mentions that a stronger exchange rate may slow down the pace of policy tightening. $BTC $ETH #特朗普税改