🚨 IMPORTANT: HUGE ECONOMIC SHIFT 🚨
💥 PART 1: The impact is MASSIVE
Here's what you need to know right now:
🤯 Between yesterday and today, we got MAJOR DATA about the U.S. ECONOMY:
📍 Investors now expect 4 consecutive rate cuts (June, July, September, October).
📍 Probability of a 5th rate cut in December jumped to 33.1% — very high.
What recessionary data did we get yesterday?
👉 Job openings collapsed from 7.48M to 7.192M (worst in 4 years — worse than expected).
👉 Consumer confidence dropped for the 5th straight month (lowest since early COVID days).
👉 Atlanta Fed forecasts GDP contraction.
What stimulus-demanding data did we get TODAY?
🔻 GDP fell from +2.4% to -0.3% (a second negative quarter = recession).
🔻 Non-farm jobs dropped from 147K to 62K (vs 114K expected).
🔻 Core PCE inflation dropped to 0% (below 0.1% expected).
🔻 Annual Core PCE is now 2.6%, down from 3%.
👉 Core PCE excludes food & energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
◼️ Some analysts (like @HenrikZeberg) argue this is not true recession risk, blaming export formula distortions.
◼️ However, markets are reacting NEGATIVELY to these weak data points.
📍 With bad economic data + cooling inflation → Rate cuts are reasonable.
📍 If the Fed doesn’t cut, it’s likely for political reasons (remember, they cut 0.5% pre-election last time without bad data).
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