【Institutional Outlook on the Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision - Widespread Expectation to 'Hold Steady'】
1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects to lower this year's economic growth and core inflation forecasts; even if the central bank takes a cautious stance on further rate hikes, there is still room for yen appreciation.
2. Bank of America: Trump's policies have increased uncertainty, paying attention to clues for rate hikes in June or July, with the next expected rate hike postponed from June to the end of the year.
3. ANZ Bank: Expected to hold steady amid trade policy uncertainty, with the press conference adopting a cautious tone, and the next expected rate hike postponed from May to October.
4. Reuters Survey: 84% of economists expect interest rates to remain at 0.50% before the end of June; 52% of economists expect a rate hike in the third quarter.
5. Credit Agricole: Given the yen appreciation and falling oil prices, it may significantly lower inflation expectations. Attention on whether it will mention that a stronger yen may slow the pace of policy normalization.
6. Citibank: Rising real wages support consumption; however, considering the implementation of equivalent tariffs and auto tariffs, we expect the Bank of Japan will not raise rates this year.
7. S&P: Expects Japanese interest rates will not change before the second half of this year, but the Bank of Japan's stance will be under scrutiny as inflation continues to rise.
8. Monex Securities: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, focusing on the outlook. The balance between rising inflation and increasing uncertainty is key to the interest rate path.
9. IG Group: Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and economic growth risks, expects to hold steady; wage growth exceeding inflation may bolster confidence in tightening policy.
10. Continuum Economics: Expects to maintain interest rates unchanged and not alter forward guidance; the combination of tariff uncertainty and rising inflation puts it in a dilemma.