I read a good article and want to share it. It's not to criticize the trading profession, but the article reveals the essence and underlying logic of capital operations that cannot be seen beyond candlestick analysis. The cheating mentioned in the title is a broad 'cheating,' meaning you have an asymmetric advantage over other market participants, or you are directly invincible and then seek victory—these all count as 'cheating.'

You did not start the race with everyone else, sharing the same risks and making trading decisions with so-called 'intelligence.' Instead, you predetermined the outcome before the trading began.

You know Xu Xiang, right? The captain of the limit-up death squad on Ningbo Liberation South Road, the king of private equity. While you are still analyzing the charts, he is engaging in insider trading. The trends you painstakingly observe are merely what he deliberately shows you.

The knowledge you know is merely public knowledge. You may feel that you've 'seemingly' understood a lot from knowing nothing to having a few post-event Zhuge maps, thinking you're a master, but in reality, they can just use this public knowledge to make their moves.

This is certainty, meaning you know that this kind of shape should be acted upon in this way. Others know too, so they can use your certain actions to set you up. The big players can predict your predictions, and if your actions are completely unpredictable, it’s harder for them to win against you.

Recently, Trump shocked everyone with his stock trading, but this is indeed monetizing power. Otherwise, what is he doing with that power? While you are still learning value investing and analyzing patterns, discussing resistance and support levels, he opens a high-leverage short position, makes a statement and breaks through your support level. When you panic and sell, he makes a fortune closing his position, then reverses with a high-leverage long position, makes another statement, and it goes up again. In the end, your chips are all gone, and he profits from both sides.

Is this a trading skill? It's just monetizing power. You say he is being rogue? At least he's showing it openly; are other country leaders not doing this? Then why work so hard to be a leader?

So, those who engage in quantification must have some exceptional qualities, right? They have brilliant mathematicians, actuaries, and create models that can accurately judge trends in the market, using extremely disciplined operations to win under high probability, collecting money based on the law of large numbers through high-frequency trading.

This kind of quantification is all one of a kind; they are all scammers. Anyone who engages in quantification and blindly believes in their strategy is a fool, regardless of their historical performance; and those who genuinely engage in quantification, these are just façades to cover up their actual cheating behavior.

If you can't cheat in ways outside of trading and instead rely on so-called models, actuarial data, and discipline to try to pick up money in the market, forget it. If you truly want to succeed in trading, at least one of the following conditions must be met; these are all verified logics, don't get involved in the abstract:

1. You have found a certain arbitrage opportunity.

For example, there are a few bots that run 24 hours a day, trading equivalently in several places and only activating when there is a confirmed profit; if the conditions are not met, they do not move. This is called 'certain arbitrage opportunity.'

Such opportunities are abundant in new fields because many people can't keep up with the versions, so they discover slowly and deploy slowly. If you are early, you can earn a period of super profits, but once they discover it, they will compete, and you will have to find other arbitrage opportunities. Your observational skills must always be one or two steps ahead of the market; once others discover it, there will be no profit left.

For example, in on-chain multi-angle arbitrage, others have deployed hundreds or thousands of bots; what are you even deploying? It's not enough to even cover gas fees. At this time, you need to find the next oasis; thus, profitable places are still those that others have not discovered yet. Once a few people find out, the information spreads immediately, and you'll have to move again.

Some people discovered a system bug that caused a delay in information synchronization between two places, creating an arbitrage space, and thus made 100% profit for more than a week, achieving a small financial freedom, and then this bug was discovered by others, and then the system became aware and patched it up.

So sometimes, getting rich is just that instant; you see the opportunity, which is the result of your daily effort in seeking opportunities combined with a bit of luck, and then you must dare to invest quickly, without dragging funds for several days, because there often aren't many days of dividends.

2. You have relevant resources and power. This market is set up by you, or you have resources that can influence ups and downs, or each of your trades has someone backing it up; then this trade is 100% safe, and even if you make a mistake, it is still safe.

Trump is a very typical example; he can influence the ups and downs of global financial markets, so he only needs to lay out his plans in advance. Some people say, 'Isn't this insider trading?' Nonsense, who trades without insider information? He could easily do it more discreetly, but okay, he doesn't want to put in that effort; he might even enjoy the feeling of 'the whole world can see how much money he has made.' Some people really are like that.

Doing trades like this is what trading is about. Buffett also uses his resources and power to trade. Soros shorted Tesla using his numerous media outlets to incite his own charitable organizations to cause disruption, forming a collective force to short—these all belong to the broad definition of cheating. It's not about ordinary people guessing ups and downs; it's about being able to influence ups and downs, or even create them out of thin air, so he is always right. Your trading is not on the same competitive level as him; how can you compare?

There are also large financial influencers who rush into a small target and directly overpower it. Just like the 'retail investors blowing up Wall Street' movement a few years ago, when that KOL raised their arms, retail investors flocked in, directly blowing up Wall Street shorts. Isn't that exhilarating? Yes, but you can only ensure profits if you reach that position where you can raise your arms. If you are a retail investor who follows early, you might also make a fortune, but the certainty is not as strong as those who have made a strategic layout; this is also about resources and power.

What has been mentioned above are all methods of cheating to ensure profits; where does 'trading technique' come from? The real technique is clearly outside of trading. So if you don’t have these, what can you do? Then you can't ensure profits; you can only make money with high probability, meaning there is a possibility of losing money, but you can only accept it. Who told you that you don't have resources and can't discover arbitrage opportunities?

It's highly likely to make money; that's the old saying in investment. You need capital, a continuous cash flow, the ability to select targets, the endurance to withstand cycles, value investing, and a long-term mindset. Don't underestimate this; many people fail to meet just the continuous cash flow requirement, and the ability to select targets may not be sufficient either.

But once you meet these conditions, you are already much better than many who are just jumping around looking at charts. In the long term, you can achieve financial freedom because you are on the right path.

In summary, the trading knowledge that most people know is very difficult to make big money from. Who really makes big money from trading? Those who can create the situation, those who can discover zero-risk arbitrage opportunities with skill and luck, and those who can stably make money in their own business, ultimately treating legitimate trading as an 'amplifier,' are definitely not those who can only treat trading as a 'lifeline' and gamble desperately.

——— This article is adapted from Cai Shu.

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